ChampionshipWest Brom vs QPR Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 47.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 60.3% for over 22.5 to 24.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. On the shot count, West Brom are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.2%, with a level count at 5.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.9% | 75.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.0%
56.7%
40.2%
49.8%
31.8%
18.2%
Shot handicap
| West Brom line | West Brom | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| -2.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| -0.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| +0.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 24.3% | 75.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.0West Brom shots per game12.3West Brom shots faced per game16.8QPR shots per game10.8QPR shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges West Brom.
In-depth analysis
47.6%Over 24.5 shots56.7%West Brom over 12.5 shots31.8%QPR over 12.5 shots47.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, West Brom over 12.5 shots sits at 56.7% and QPR at 31.8%. This season West Brom have averaged 10.0 shots a game and QPR 16.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in West Brom vs QPR?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 47.6% for West Brom vs QPR.
Which team will have more shots in West Brom vs QPR?
The model rates West Brom to take more shots at 64.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.