ChampionshipPreston vs Lincoln Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.6% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. Between the two sides, Lincoln are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 22.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.2%
23.9%
53.7%
26.9%
Card handicap
| Preston line | Preston | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| +1.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.3% | 70.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.7Preston cards per game12.5Preston fouls per game2.4Lincoln cards per game14.0Lincoln fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Preston vs Lincoln. It tips Lincoln for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.0%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card50.2%Preston over 1.5 cards53.7%Lincoln over 1.5 cards43.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Preston over 1.5 cards sits at 50.2% and Lincoln at 53.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Preston 8.6%, Lincoln 1.0%). This season Preston have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Lincoln 2.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Preston vs Lincoln?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.0% for Preston vs Lincoln.
Will there be a red card in Preston vs Lincoln?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Preston vs Lincoln?
The model rates Lincoln to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.