Derby vs Birmingham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Derby vs Birmingham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Championship
Derby

DLWLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202612:30UK
Birmingham

DWDDL

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Derby or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
DerbyWin probability
38.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Derby or draw67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 8.5 corners65.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.52

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Derby and Birmingham on 12 September 2026: Derby nose ahead at 39%. Notably, the model is warmer on Derby than the market (27%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Derby, 2 draws and 2 for Birmingham at 2.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Derby W1 D1 L4, Birmingham W1 D4 L1. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 11.5 corners35.0%@ 2.86
Medium risk

Draw or Birmingham61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners55.2%@ 1.81
Under 2.5 goals54.6%@ 1.83
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.43
1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.84
0-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.91

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Derby

38.7%+11.6%

Draw

28.3%+0.3%

Birmingham

33.0%-12.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.2%

Good chance

Over 10.544.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersDerby52.9%Birmingham36.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.5%

Good chance

Over 24.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Derby10.5 taken16.2 faced
Birmingham12.0 taken10.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.8%2.545.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Form & head-to-head

DerbyDLWLL
BirminghamDWDDL

Last 5 meetings: Derby 1 · 2 draws · Birmingham 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-03-21Derby 1-0 Birmingham
2025-12-26Birmingham 1-1 Derby
2022-01-30Derby 2-2 Birmingham
2021-09-10Birmingham 2-0 Derby
2021-04-24Derby 1-2 Birmingham

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

DerbyBirmingham
League position#22 of 24#15 of 24
Record W-D-L1-1-41-4-1
Current streakL2L1
Points per game0.671.17
Record, home vs away0-1-21-1-1
PPG, home vs away0.331.33
Goals scored per game0.831.33
Goals conceded per game1.831.33
Scored, home vs away0.671.00
Conceded, home vs away2.001.00
1st half goals per game0.500.67
2nd half goals per game0.330.67
Corners won per game5.86.5
Cards per game2.51.8
Fouls per game14.512.8
Red cards this season00
Shots per game10.512.0
Shots faced per game16.210.7
Shots on target per game3.23.3
Over 2.5 rate

66.7%66.7%

BTTS rate

33.3%83.3%

Clean sheets

16.7%16.7%

Rates this season:DerbyBirmingham

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Derby win3.402.58
Draw3.303.53
Birmingham win2.103.03
Over 2.5 goals2.102.20
Under 2.5 goals1.731.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Derby win2.58
Draw3.54
Birmingham win3.03
Both teams to score1.95

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.20
Over 3.5 goals4.15
Derby most2.58
Birmingham most3.03

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.21
Derby most1.89
Birmingham most2.74

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.95
Over 4.5 cards3.14
Over 5.5 cards5.74
Derby most2.63
Birmingham most2.47

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.62
Over 7.5 SoT2.08
Over 8.5 SoT2.81
Over 9.5 SoT4.03
Derby most1.93
Birmingham most2.88

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.19
Over 26.5 shots2.96
Over 28.5 shots4.26
Derby most1.67
Birmingham most2.94

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.55
Over 22.5 fouls2.03
Over 24.5 fouls2.91
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.5% Over 24.5 45.7% Over 26.5 33.8% Over 28.5 23.5%
Most: Derby 59.9% Most: Birmingham 34.0%
Derby Over 13.2 43.9% Birmingham Over 13.2 26.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.6% Over 7.5 48.2% Over 8.5 35.6% Over 9.5 24.8%
Most: Derby 51.9% Most: Birmingham 34.7%
Derby Over 4.2 39.4% Birmingham Over 4.2 27.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.0% Over 3.5 51.2% Over 4.5 31.9%
Most: Derby 38.1% Most: Birmingham 40.4%
Derby Over 1.8 54.8% Birmingham Over 1.8 56.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derby clean sheet 30.5%
Birmingham clean sheet 27.1%
Derby win to nil 21.6%
Birmingham win to nil 18.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.7% draw 28.3% away 33.0%
double_chance
1X 67.0% 12 71.8% X2 61.3%
dnb
home 54.0% away 46.0%
btts
yes 51.3% no 48.7%
clean_sheet
home 30.5% away 27.1%
win_to_nil
home 21.6% away 18.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.0% home_by_2 11.5% home_by_3plus 6.3%
away_by_1 19.0% away_by_2 9.5% away_by_3plus 4.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.9% 0-1 9.2% 0-2 5.8%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.2% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.1% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 8.9% over_1.5 71.8%
under_1.5 28.2% over_2.5 45.4% under_2.5 54.6%
over_3.5 24.1% under_3.5 75.9% over_4.5 10.8%
under_4.5 89.2% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.5%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.6%
team_away
over_0.5 69.5% under_0.5 30.5% over_1.5 33.3%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
most
home 38.7% draw 28.3% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.3% away_+2.5 93.7% home_-1.5 17.7%
away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 38.7% away_+0.5 61.3%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+1.5 86.0%
away_-1.5 14.0% home_+2.5 95.5% away_-2.5 4.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.9% exact_1 19.3% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.7% draw 37.4% away 23.0%
total
over_0.5 75.8% under_0.5 24.2% over_1.5 41.5%
under_1.5 58.5% over_2.5 17.1% under_2.5 82.9%
btts
yes 24.9% no 75.1%
total_exact
exact_0 24.2% exact_1 34.3% exact_2 24.4%
exact_3 11.5% exact_4plus 5.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.2% draw 44.2% away 30.6%
total
over_0.5 66.5% under_0.5 33.5% over_1.5 29.9%
under_1.5 70.1% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
btts
yes 17.7% no 82.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.9% H/D 6.6% H/A 2.2%
D/H 9.4% D/D 16.5% D/A 11.5%
A/H 1.0% A/D 3.6% A/A 18.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.9% under_7.5 21.1% over_8.5 68.5%
under_8.5 31.5% over_9.5 57.0% under_9.5 43.0%
over_10.5 45.3% under_10.5 54.8% over_11.5 34.3%
under_11.5 65.7% over_12.5 24.8% under_12.5 75.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.8% under_3.5 23.2% over_4.5 62.2%
under_4.5 37.8% over_5.5 47.0% under_5.5 53.0%
team_away
over_3.5 66.7% under_3.5 33.3% over_4.5 50.0%
under_4.5 50.0% over_5.5 34.5% under_5.5 65.5%
most
home 53.0% draw 10.5% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-1.5 42.4%
away_+1.5 57.7% home_-0.5 53.0% away_+0.5 47.0%
home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5% home_+1.5 73.1%
away_-1.5 26.9% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.5% under_22.5 41.5% over_24.5 45.7%
under_24.5 54.3% over_26.5 33.8% under_26.5 66.2%
over_28.5 23.5% under_28.5 76.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.4% under_10.5 30.6% over_12.5 52.4%
under_12.5 47.6% over_14.5 36.0% under_14.5 64.0%
team_away
over_10.5 51.8% under_10.5 48.2% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.7% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 59.9% draw 6.2% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.5% away_+4.5 65.5% home_-2.5 47.0%
away_+2.5 53.0% home_-0.5 59.9% away_+0.5 40.1%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+2.5 77.0%
away_-2.5 23.0% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.6% under_6.5 38.4% over_7.5 48.2%
under_7.5 51.8% over_8.5 35.6% under_8.5 64.4%
over_9.5 24.8% under_9.5 75.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 39.4%
under_4.5 60.6% over_5.5 24.8% under_5.5 75.2%
team_away
over_3.5 44.7% under_3.5 55.3% over_4.5 27.5%
under_4.5 72.5% over_5.5 15.3% under_5.5 84.7%
most
home 51.9% draw 13.4% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.3% away_+2.5 73.7% home_-0.5 51.9%
away_+0.5 48.1% home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7%
home_+2.5 86.0% away_-2.5 14.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.0% under_2.5 28.0% over_3.5 51.2%
under_3.5 48.8% over_4.5 31.9% under_4.5 68.2%
over_5.5 17.4% under_5.5 82.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.8% under_1.5 45.2% over_2.5 27.9%
under_2.5 72.1%
team_away
over_1.5 56.5% under_1.5 43.5% over_2.5 29.5%
under_2.5 70.5%
most
home 38.1% draw 21.5% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.0% away_+1.5 80.0% home_-0.5 38.1%
away_+0.5 61.9% home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.4%
home_+1.5 78.2% away_-1.5 21.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 64.7% under_20.5 35.3% over_22.5 49.3%
under_22.5 50.7% over_24.5 34.4% under_24.5 65.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 66.1% under_9.5 33.9% over_11.5 44.1%
under_11.5 55.9% over_13.5 24.9% under_13.5 75.1%
team_away
over_9.5 68.7% under_9.5 31.3% over_11.5 47.0%
under_11.5 53.0% over_13.5 27.4% under_13.5 72.6%
most
home 44.1% draw 7.8% away 48.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 44.1%
away_+0.5 56.0% home_+2.5 67.0% away_-2.5 33.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.2% no 88.8%
home
yes 4.2% no 95.8%
away
yes 7.3% no 92.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Derby predictions · Birmingham predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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