ChampionshipBlackburn vs Millwall Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 47.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.0% for over 2.5 to 15.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. Between the two sides, Millwall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 22.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.0% | 85.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.4%
24.9%
54.7%
27.8%
Card handicap
| Blackburn line | Blackburn | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| +0.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| +1.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.0% | 75.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.0Blackburn cards per game11.2Blackburn fouls per game1.4Millwall cards per game12.0Millwall fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Blackburn vs Millwall. It tips Millwall for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.6%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card51.4%Blackburn over 1.5 cards54.7%Millwall over 1.5 cards38.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Blackburn over 1.5 cards sits at 51.4% and Millwall at 54.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Blackburn 8.8%, Millwall 9.6%). This season Blackburn have averaged 3.0 cards a game and Millwall 1.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Blackburn vs Millwall?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.6% for Blackburn vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Blackburn vs Millwall?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Blackburn vs Millwall?
The model rates Millwall to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 22.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.