ChampionshipDerby vs Birmingham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.0% for over 2.5 to 17.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on cards, Birmingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 21.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.9% | 68.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.8%
27.9%
56.5%
29.5%
Card handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| -0.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| +0.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| +1.5 | 78.2% | 21.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.4% | 65.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Derby cards per game14.5Derby fouls per game1.8Birmingham cards per game12.8Birmingham fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Derby vs Birmingham. Slightly more cards are projected for Birmingham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.2%Over 3.5 cards11.2%Any red card54.8%Derby over 1.5 cards56.5%Birmingham over 1.5 cards49.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Derby over 1.5 cards sits at 54.8% and Birmingham at 56.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.2% (Derby 4.2%, Birmingham 7.3%). This season Derby have averaged 2.5 cards a game and Birmingham 1.8.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.2% for Derby vs Birmingham.
Will there be a red card in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model rates Birmingham to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.