AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
VallecanoVallecanoWLWDD
Full time0-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1013:00UK
ElcheElcheDLWDD

Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Elche cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.2%

Result

Vallecano0-3Elche
6 yellow cardsVallecano 3, Elche 3
0 red cardsVallecano 0, Elche 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 67.8% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 72.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards67.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Recorded match referee.

Miguel Sesma Espinosa in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 15 6
Goals 2.73 3.00
Yellow cards 3.27 4.33
Red cards 0.27 0.67
Corners 9.9 9.7
Fouls 26.3 25.8
Both teams scored 47% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 67% 67%
Home wins 60% 17%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Vallecano vs Elche 0-3 3 No 6 0 6 26
11 Oct 2026 Sociedad vs La Coruna 3-2 5 Yes 3 2 17 27
15 Sep 2026 Alaves vs Valencia 0-1 1 No 5 0 7 21
6 Sep 2026 Espanol vs Sevilla 1-1 2 Yes 5 1 4 30
27 Aug 2026 Celta vs Osasuna 1-2 3 Yes 1 1 8 23
16 Aug 2026 Santander vs Villarreal 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 16 28
21 Dec 2025 Betis vs Getafe 4-0 4 No 1 0 12 25
7 Dec 2025 Elche vs Girona 3-0 3 No 3 0 4 31
24 Nov 2025 Espanol vs Sevilla 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 17 25
2 Nov 2025 Barcelona vs Elche 3-1 4 Yes 1 0 9 28

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Vallecano vs Elche. The model leans toward Elche for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.6% 16.4%
3.5 cards 67.8% 32.2%
4.5 cards 49.7% 50.3%
5.5 cards 32.9% 67.1%

Who picks up more cards

Vallecano
37.2%
Level
18.5%
Elche
44.2%

Team cards lines

Vallecano

Over 1.5
64.5%
Over 2.5
38.5%

Elche

Over 1.5
68.9%
Over 2.5
43.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Vallecano's; Elche gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Vallecano line Vallecano Elche
-1.5 21.5% 78.5%
-0.5 37.2% 62.8%
+0.5 55.8% 44.2%
+1.5 72.9% 27.1%

Red card

Any red card27.3%
Vallecano red card15.1%
Elche red card14.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.0% 17.0%
22.5 fouls 72.5% 27.6%
24.5 fouls 59.8% 40.2%
VallecanoVallecano

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Vallecano at home and Elche away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ElcheElche
Statistic
Vallecano
Elche
Yellow cards per game
2.0
·

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.6% for over 2.5 to 32.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. Between the two sides, Elche are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 18.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Vallecano over 1.5 cards sits at 64.5% and Elche at 68.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 27.3% (Vallecano 15.1%, Elche 14.4%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

67.8%Over 3.5 cards
27.3%Any red card
44.2%Most cards: Elche
64.5%Vallecano over 1.5 cards
68.9%Elche over 1.5 cards
72.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 27.3%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianElche are the pick to collect more cards at 44.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 49.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
VallecanoVallecano

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ElcheElche
Statistic
Vallecano
Elche
fouls per game
14.2
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Vallecano vs Elche?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.8% for Vallecano vs Elche.
Will there be a red card in Vallecano vs Elche?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 27.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Vallecano vs Elche?
Before kickoff, the model rated Elche to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.