Ligue 1
Troyes vs 
Strasbourg Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 54.7% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 84.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 45.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.0% for over 2.5 to 13.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. On the card count, Strasbourg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.6% | 73.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.6% | 86.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.1%
23.0%
53.8%
27.0%
Card handicap
| Troyes line | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| -0.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| +0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.7% | 22.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 40.6% | 59.4% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Troyes vs Strasbourg. Slightly more cards are projected for Strasbourg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.3%Over 3.5 cards15.2%Any red card49.1%Troyes over 1.5 cards53.8%Strasbourg over 1.5 cards54.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Troyes over 1.5 cards sits at 49.1% and Strasbourg at 53.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.2% (Troyes 5.2%, Strasbourg 10.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 45.3% for Troyes vs Strasbourg.
Will there be a red card in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Strasbourg to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.