Ligue 1
Paris FC vs 
Lyon Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. Between the two sides, Paris FC are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.1% | 83.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.4%
31.3%
49.9%
23.6%
Card handicap
| Paris FC line | Paris FC | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| -0.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| +1.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 37.8% | 62.2% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paris FC vs Lyon. It tips Paris FC for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.3%Over 3.5 cards20.1%Any red card58.4%Paris FC over 1.5 cards49.9%Lyon over 1.5 cards52.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Paris FC over 1.5 cards sits at 58.4% and Lyon at 49.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.1% (Paris FC 14.3%, Lyon 6.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Paris FC vs Lyon?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.3% for Paris FC vs Lyon.
Will there be a red card in Paris FC vs Lyon?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paris FC vs Lyon?
The model rates Paris FC to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.