Ligue 1
Auxerre vs 
Nice Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.4% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Head to head on cards, Nice are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 21.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.7% | 81.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.7%
26.1%
60.8%
33.7%
Card handicap
| Auxerre line | Auxerre | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| -0.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.4% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Auxerre vs Nice. The model leans toward Nice for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.0%Over 3.5 cards19.1%Any red card52.7%Auxerre over 1.5 cards60.8%Nice over 1.5 cards59.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Auxerre over 1.5 cards sits at 52.7% and Nice at 60.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.1% (Auxerre 11.1%, Nice 9.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Auxerre vs Nice?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.0% for Auxerre vs Nice.
Will there be a red card in Auxerre vs Nice?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Auxerre vs Nice?
The model rates Nice to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.