Ligue 1
Lorient vs 
Toulouse Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.6% for over 2.5 to 16.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. Head to head on cards, Toulouse are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 20.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.3% | 83.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.0%
19.7%
62.7%
35.7%
Card handicap
| Lorient line | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.7% | 87.4% |
| -0.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| +0.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| +1.5 | 69.3% | 30.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 44.5% | 55.5% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lorient vs Toulouse. The model leans toward Toulouse for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.5%Over 3.5 cards15.0%Any red card45.0%Lorient over 1.5 cards62.7%Toulouse over 1.5 cards58.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Lorient over 1.5 cards sits at 45.0% and Toulouse at 62.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Lorient 2.6%, Toulouse 12.8%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lorient vs Toulouse?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.5% for Lorient vs Toulouse.
Will there be a red card in Lorient vs Toulouse?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lorient vs Toulouse?
The model rates Toulouse to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.