Ligue 1
Troyes vs 
Strasbourg Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 50.5% and it missed (46 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 64.1% and it landed (18 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 62.1% for over 22.5 to 26.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. On the shot count, Troyes are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.3%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.4% | 73.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.5%
55.9%
39.4%
53.5%
35.3%
20.9%
Shot handicap
| Troyes line | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| -2.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| -0.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| +0.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.8% | 60.2% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Troyes.
In-depth analysis
49.5%Over 24.5 shots55.9%Troyes over 12.5 shots35.3%Strasbourg over 12.5 shots64.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Troyes over 12.5 shots sits at 55.9% and Strasbourg at 35.3%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 49.5% for Troyes vs Strasbourg.
Which team will have more shots in Troyes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Troyes to take more shots at 61.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.