Troyes vs Strasbourg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Troyes vs Strasbourg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Troyes

DLDDW

Full time2-6Sun, 6 Sep 202614:00UK29°C · Cloudy
Strasbourg

DWWLW

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Draw or Strasbourg

59%

Both teams to score

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Strasbourg at 46.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 56.6% and it landed (8 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.9% and it landed (8 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 65.7% and it missed (8 goals). We called Yes at 59.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.8% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.9% and it missed (11 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 54.7% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.5% and it missed (46 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 64.1% and it landed (18 shots on target). We called No at 84.8% and it landed.

Match data Troyes Strasbourg
Goals, 1st half 1 2
Goals, 2nd half 1 4
Shots 27 19
Shots, 1st half 8 8
Shots, 2nd half 19 11
Shots on target 6 12
Corners 11 0
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 6 16
Expected goals (xG) 2.65 3.52

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StrasbourgWin probability
46.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Draw or Strasbourg70.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Both teams to score59.4%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

Troyes versus Strasbourg on 6 September 2026 tilts towards Strasbourg in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 57% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. • Conditions could matter: the forecast says 29 degrees of heat. • Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Troyes against W3 D1 L2 for Strasbourg. The recent series reads 1 wins for Troyes, 3 draws and 1 for Strasbourg over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Troyes are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. For shots markets, Dermane Karim is the obvious watch at 0.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Strasbourg win46.7%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners45.4%@ 2.20
Over 10.5 corners35.3%@ 2.83
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals56.6%@ 1.77
Over 8.5 corners56.4%@ 1.77
Troyes or draw53.3%@ 1.87
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.49
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.85
0-1 correct score8.0%@ 12.48

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Troyes

29.1%

Draw

24.3%

Strasbourg

46.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.9%

High probability

Over 2.556.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.4%

Good chance

Over 9.545.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.4%

Low chance

Most cornersTroyes54.5%Strasbourg34.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.9%2.556.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.9%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

TroyesDLDDW
StrasbourgDWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Troyes 1 · 3 draws · Strasbourg 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2023-05-21Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg
2023-01-02Strasbourg 2-3 Troyes
2022-04-17Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg
2021-08-22Strasbourg 1-1 Troyes
2018-02-11Strasbourg 2-1 Troyes

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TroyesStrasbourg
League position#6 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-01-0-1
Current streakW1W1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Dermane KarimTroyes · key player
To score3.4%

@ 29.41

1+ on target6.2%

@ 16.13

2+ shots9.5%

@ 10.53

Shots/90 1.04SoT/90 0.13Goals/90 0.07
Samuel Amo-AmeyawStrasbourg · key player
To score10.4%

@ 9.62

1+ on target29.7%

@ 3.37

2+ shots17.6%

@ 5.68

Shots/90 1.79SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.26
Michel DiazTroyes · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target4.3%

@ 23.26

2+ shots5.1%

@ 19.61

Shots/90 0.41SoT/90 0.05Goals/90 0
Pape DiopStrasbourg · in form
To score5.8%

@ 17.24

1+ on target47.5%

@ 2.11

2+ shots56.2%

@ 1.78

Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.07
Sékou MaraStrasbourg · in form
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target26.4%

@ 3.79

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Troyes win3.34
Draw3.96
Strasbourg win2.23
Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.77
Over 3.5 goals2.92
Troyes most3.34
Strasbourg most2.23

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.17
Over 10.5 corners2.89
Troyes most1.83
Strasbourg most2.90

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.21
Over 4.5 cards3.77
Over 5.5 cards7.35
Troyes most2.80
Strasbourg most2.39

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.93
Over 9.5 SoT2.51
Troyes most1.81
Strasbourg most3.05

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.02
Over 26.5 shots2.69
Over 28.5 shots3.79
Troyes most1.63
Strasbourg most3.06

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.45
Over 22.5 fouls1.82
Over 24.5 fouls2.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.7% Over 7.5 64.1% Over 8.5 51.8% Over 9.5 39.8%
Most: Troyes 55.1% Most: Strasbourg 32.8%
Troyes Over 4.2 52.8% Strasbourg Over 4.2 36.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.0% Over 3.5 45.3% Over 4.5 26.6%
Most: Troyes 35.7% Most: Strasbourg 41.9%
Troyes Over 1.8 49.1% Strasbourg Over 1.8 53.8%

Troyes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Dermane Karim 1.04 0.13 0.07 6.2% 9.5% 3.4%
Michel Diaz 0.41 0.05 0 4.3% 5.1% 0.0%

Strasbourg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 1.79 0.83 0.26 29.7% 17.6% 10.4%
Pape Diop 2.22 0.76 0.07 47.5% 56.2% 5.8%
Sékou Mara 2.26 0.72 0.18 26.4% 25.0% 7.4%
Sebastian Nanasi 1.31 0.63 0.33 36.9% 24.9% 21.5%
Gessime Yassine 1.71 0.53 0.26 25.0% 23.8% 13.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Troyes clean sheet 19.3%
Strasbourg clean sheet 26.8%
Troyes win to nil 13.5%
Strasbourg win to nil 21.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 30.0% draw 25.3% away 44.8%
double_chance
1X 55.2% 12 74.8% X2 70.0%
dnb
home 40.1% away 59.9%
btts
yes 59.4% no 40.6%
clean_sheet
home 19.3% away 27.0%
win_to_nil
home 13.6% away 21.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.8% home_by_2 8.7% home_by_3plus 4.5%
away_by_1 21.2% away_by_2 13.7% away_by_3plus 9.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.8% 0-1 8.0% 0-2 7.0%
0-3 3.9% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 11.8% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 5.1% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.5% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 6.0%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 3.2% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.2% under_0.5 5.8% over_1.5 79.9%
under_1.5 20.1% over_2.5 56.6% under_2.5 43.4%
over_3.5 34.3% under_3.5 65.7% over_4.5 17.7%
under_4.5 82.3% over_5.5 8.0% under_5.5 92.0%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 73.0% under_0.5 27.0% over_1.5 37.6%
under_1.5 62.4% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.5%
team_away
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 48.9%
under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
most
home 30.0% draw 25.3% away 44.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.5% away_+2.5 95.5% home_-1.5 13.2%
away_+1.5 86.8% home_-0.5 30.0% away_+0.5 70.0%
home_+0.5 55.2% away_-0.5 44.8% home_+1.5 76.4%
away_-1.5 23.6% home_+2.5 90.1% away_-2.5 9.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.8% exact_1 14.3% exact_2 23.3%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.8%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.9% draw 41.6% away 22.6%
total
over_0.5 69.9% under_0.5 30.1% over_1.5 33.8%
under_1.5 66.2% over_2.5 12.1% under_2.5 87.9%
btts
yes 19.8% no 80.2%
total_exact
exact_0 30.1% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.7%
exact_3 8.7% exact_4plus 3.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.5% draw 36.7% away 30.9%
total
over_0.5 77.8% under_0.5 22.2% over_1.5 44.4%
under_1.5 55.6% over_2.5 19.3% under_2.5 80.7%
btts
yes 28.0% no 72.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.3% H/D 6.1% H/A 2.5%
D/H 13.5% D/D 15.2% D/A 12.8%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.3% A/A 16.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.4% under_7.5 29.6% over_8.5 58.4%
under_8.5 41.6% over_9.5 46.1% under_9.5 53.9%
over_10.5 34.6% under_10.5 65.4% over_11.5 24.7%
under_11.5 75.3% over_12.5 16.8% under_12.5 83.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 56.4%
under_4.5 43.6% over_5.5 41.1% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 58.4% under_3.5 41.6% over_4.5 41.0%
under_4.5 59.0% over_5.5 26.5% under_5.5 73.5%
most
home 54.6% draw 10.9% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.6% away_+3.5 76.4% home_-1.5 43.5%
away_+1.5 56.5% home_-0.5 54.6% away_+0.5 45.4%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+1.5 75.2%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 89.2% away_-3.5 10.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.1% under_22.5 37.9% over_24.5 49.5%
under_24.5 50.5% over_26.5 37.2% under_26.5 62.8%
over_28.5 26.4% under_28.5 73.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.5% under_10.5 27.5% over_12.5 55.9%
under_12.5 44.1% over_14.5 39.4% under_14.5 60.6%
team_away
over_10.5 53.5% under_10.5 46.5% over_12.5 35.3%
under_12.5 64.7% over_14.5 20.9% under_14.5 79.1%
most
home 61.3% draw 6.0% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.0% away_+4.5 64.0% home_-2.5 48.6%
away_+2.5 51.4% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7% home_+2.5 78.0%
away_-2.5 22.0% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.7% under_6.5 24.3% over_7.5 64.1%
under_7.5 35.9% over_8.5 51.8% under_8.5 48.2%
over_9.5 39.8% under_9.5 60.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.4% under_3.5 30.6% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 37.0% under_5.5 63.0%
team_away
over_3.5 54.5% under_3.5 45.5% over_4.5 36.5%
under_4.5 63.5% over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
most
home 55.1% draw 12.1% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.9% away_+2.5 69.1% home_-0.5 55.1%
away_+0.5 44.9% home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8%
home_+2.5 85.9% away_-2.5 14.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.0% under_2.5 33.0% over_3.5 45.3%
under_3.5 54.7% over_4.5 26.6% under_4.5 73.5%
over_5.5 13.6% under_5.5 86.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 49.1% under_1.5 50.9% over_2.5 23.0%
under_2.5 77.0%
team_away
over_1.5 53.8% under_1.5 46.2% over_2.5 27.0%
under_2.5 73.0%
most
home 35.7% draw 22.4% away 41.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.7% away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 35.7%
away_+0.5 64.3% home_+0.5 58.1% away_-0.5 41.9%
home_+1.5 77.7% away_-1.5 22.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 69.1% under_20.5 30.9% over_22.5 54.9%
under_22.5 45.1% over_24.5 40.6% under_24.5 59.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.6% under_9.5 29.4% over_11.5 50.3%
under_11.5 49.7% over_13.5 31.3% under_13.5 68.7%
team_away
over_9.5 69.2% under_9.5 30.8% over_11.5 48.8%
under_11.5 51.2% over_13.5 29.8% under_13.5 70.2%
most
home 47.4% draw 7.3% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-0.5 47.4%
away_+0.5 52.6% home_+2.5 68.7% away_-2.5 31.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.2% no 84.8%
home
yes 5.2% no 94.8%
away
yes 10.5% no 89.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Troyes predictions · Strasbourg predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1TroyesStrasbourgTrack record