AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
TranmereTranmereWLDDL
Full time1-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
RochdaleRochdaleLDWWW

Tranmere 1-1 Rochdale cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.4%

Result

Tranmere1-1Rochdale
1 yellow cardsTranmere 0, Rochdale 1
0 red cardsTranmere 0, Rochdale 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.6% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 66.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

S Gill

Recorded match referee.

S Gill in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 50 5
Goals 3.18 2.60
Yellow cards 3.46 3.20
Red cards 0.08 0.00
Corners 10.1 7.2
Fouls 21.6 20.2
Both teams scored 58% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 56% 40%
Home wins 54% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
10 Oct 2026 Tranmere vs Rochdale 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 8 19
19 Sep 2026 Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs 3-0 3 No 3 0 3 16
12 Sep 2026 Newport County vs Fleetwood Town 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 12 26
5 Sep 2026 Swindon vs Colchester 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 10 15
1 Sep 2026 Exeter vs Barnet 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 3 25
15 Feb 2025 Walsall vs Chesterfield 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 9 20
29 Dec 2024 Preston vs Sheffield WedsChampionship 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 9 33
26 Dec 2024 Bromley vs Newport County 5-2 7 Yes 0 0 12 24
14 Dec 2024 Cheltenham vs Morecambe 2-0 2 No 4 0 11 29
7 Dec 2024 Portsmouth vs Bristol CityChampionship 3-0 3 No 6 0 13 26

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tranmere vs Rochdale. Slightly more cards are projected for Rochdale for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.4% 28.6%
3.5 cards 50.6% 49.4%
4.5 cards 31.3% 68.8%
5.5 cards 17.0% 83.0%

Who picks up more cards

Tranmere
34.8%
Level
21.5%
Rochdale
43.7%

Team cards lines

Tranmere

Over 1.5
51.9%
Over 2.5
25.3%

Rochdale

Over 1.5
58.3%
Over 2.5
31.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Tranmere's; Rochdale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Tranmere line Tranmere Rochdale
-1.5 17.6% 82.4%
-0.5 34.8% 65.1%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 75.7% 24.3%

Red card

Any red card33.2%
Tranmere red card7.1%
Rochdale red card28.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.9% 32.1%
22.5 fouls 52.7% 47.3%
24.5 fouls 37.5% 62.5%
TranmereTranmere

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Tranmere at home and Rochdale away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RochdaleRochdale
Statistic
Tranmere
Rochdale
Cards per game at this venue
2.5
2.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.3
1.3

Yellow cards per game
2.4
1.8

Red cards this season
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 17.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. Head to head on cards, Rochdale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Tranmere over 1.5 cards sits at 51.9% and Rochdale at 58.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 33.2% (Tranmere 7.1%, Rochdale 28.1%). This season Tranmere have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Rochdale 2.1.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

50.6%Over 3.5 cards
33.2%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Rochdale
51.9%Tranmere over 1.5 cards
58.3%Rochdale over 1.5 cards
52.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 33.2%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianRochdale are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
TranmereTranmere

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RochdaleRochdale
Statistic
Tranmere
Rochdale
cards per game
2.6
2.1

fouls per game
11.7
11.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Tranmere vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.6% for Tranmere vs Rochdale.
Will there be a red card in Tranmere vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 33.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tranmere vs Rochdale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rochdale to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoTranmere fixtures and statsRochdale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.