Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lille Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Toulouse or Lille (71.0%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 71.0%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Lille are favoured at 39.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse by 1 | 19.0% |
| Toulouse by 2 | 9.4% |
| Toulouse by 3+ | 4.4% |
| Lille by 1 | 21.1% |
| Lille by 2 | 11.5% |
| Lille by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
Goal handicap
| Toulouse line | Toulouse | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| +1.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Toulouse or Lille on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
50.6%Both Teams to Score
44.7%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Lille are favoured at 39.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 1 · 0 draws · Lille 4 · 3.4 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Toulouse vs Lille?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 71.0%; it landed, final score 0-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.