Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lille Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 55.3% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 76.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 64.0% and it missed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Toulouse have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, Lille 1.2 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.7% for over 2.5 and 71.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Toulouse have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Lille in 1 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.9% | 9.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Team goal lines
68.9%
32.6%
11.4%
72.6%
37.2%
14.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.4% | 91.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.9% | 82.1% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.6%Both Teams to Score44.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 44.7% for three or more goals and 71.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Lille favoured at 39.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Lille to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 1 · 0 draws · Lille 4 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Toulouse vs Lille?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 44.7%. The match finished with 1 goals (0-1), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.