Strasbourg vs Monaco prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Strasbourg vs Monaco: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Strasbourg

WWLWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202616:15UK26°C · Clearing
Monaco

LLWWW

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Both teams to score

64%

Strasbourg or draw

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StrasbourgWin probability
40.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Both teams to score65.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Strasbourg or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

"Strasbourg or Monaco? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Strasbourg versus Monaco in the Ligue 1 on 12 September 2026 is finely balanced. Strasbourg edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. Notably, the model is warmer on Strasbourg than the market (30%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 65%. Conrad Harder drives the home shot volume, 1.6 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Strasbourg W4 D1 L1, Monaco W4 D0 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Strasbourg, 1 draws and 3 for Monaco at 3.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09
Over 10.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65
Monaco win35.5%@ 2.81
Medium risk

Draw or Monaco59.5%@ 1.68
Over 8.5 corners58.8%@ 1.70
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.42
2-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.86
1-2 correct score8.1%@ 12.39

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Strasbourg

40.5%+10.0%

Draw

24.0%-1.0%

Monaco

35.5%-9.0%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.2%

High probability

Over 2.563.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes65.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.8%

Good chance

Over 9.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.6%

Low chance

Most cornersStrasbourg50.7%Monaco38.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.7%

Good chance

Over 26.543.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.9%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Strasbourg13.3 taken18.5 faced
Monaco12.2 taken14.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Strasbourg (3 games)

7.0 / 6.3

Monaco (3 games)

6.7 / 3.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.2%2.563.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

StrasbourgWWLWW
MonacoLLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Strasbourg 1 · 1 draws · Monaco 3 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-05-17Strasbourg 5-4 Monaco
2025-08-31Monaco 3-2 Strasbourg
2025-04-19Monaco 0-0 Strasbourg
2024-11-09Strasbourg 1-3 Monaco
2024-03-10Strasbourg 0-1 Monaco

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

StrasbourgMonaco
League position#6 of 18#1 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-13-0-0
Current streakW2W3
Record, home vs away1-0-02-0-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Conrad HarderStrasbourg · key player
To score12.2%

@ 8.20

1+ on target40.3%

@ 2.48

2+ shots43.7%

@ 2.29

Shots/90 4.57SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.4
Mika BierethMonaco · key player
To score26.1%

@ 3.83

1+ on target45.0%

@ 2.22

2+ shots34.4%

@ 2.91

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.58
Samuel Amo-AmeyawStrasbourg · in form
To score14.7%

@ 6.80

1+ on target34.2%

@ 2.92

2+ shots19.7%

@ 5.08

Shots/90 1.95SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.38
Stanis Idumbo MuzamboMonaco · in form
To score11.2%

@ 8.93

1+ on target24.5%

@ 4.08

2+ shots20.6%

@ 4.85

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.39
Sékou MaraStrasbourg · in form
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target26.4%

@ 3.79

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.18
Aleksandr GolovinMonaco · in form
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target46.8%

@ 2.14

2+ shots37.6%

@ 2.66

Shots/90 1.74SoT/90 0.84Goals/90 0.23

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Strasbourg win3.102.47
Draw3.754.17
Monaco win2.152.81
Over 2.5 goals1.571.57
Under 2.5 goals2.382.74

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Strasbourg win2.53
Draw4.14
Monaco win2.75
Both teams to score1.53

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.58
Over 3.5 goals2.41
Over 4.5 goals4.27
Strasbourg most2.53
Monaco most2.75

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.64
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.68
Strasbourg most1.97
Monaco most2.61

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.40
Over 5.5 cards6.41
Strasbourg most3.08
Monaco most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.43
Over 8.5 SoT1.72
Over 9.5 SoT2.17
Strasbourg most2.02
Monaco most2.60

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.80
Over 26.5 shots2.31
Over 28.5 shots3.14
Strasbourg most1.75
Monaco most2.72

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.42
Over 22.5 fouls1.77
Over 24.5 fouls2.38
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 67.8% Over 24.5 55.7% Over 26.5 43.3% Over 28.5 31.9%
Most: Strasbourg 57.1% Most: Monaco 36.8%
Strasbourg Over 13.2 49.0% Monaco Over 13.2 34.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.2% Over 7.5 69.8% Over 8.5 58.1% Over 9.5 46.1%
Most: Strasbourg 49.4% Most: Monaco 38.5%
Strasbourg Over 4.2 53.3% Monaco Over 4.2 45.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.8% Over 3.5 48.5% Over 4.5 29.4%
Most: Strasbourg 32.4% Most: Monaco 45.9%
Strasbourg Over 1.8 48.6% Monaco Over 1.8 58.5%

Strasbourg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Conrad Harder 4.57 1.59 0.4 40.3% 43.7% 12.2%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 1.95 1 0.38 34.2% 19.7% 14.7%
Sékou Mara 2.26 0.72 0.18 26.4% 25.0% 7.4%
Pape Diop 2.07 0.71 0.06 45.6% 52.9% 5.0%
Giovanni Reyna 1.39 0.65 0.37 17.2% 6.3% 10.2%

Monaco: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mika Biereth 2.34 1.15 0.58 45.0% 34.4% 26.1%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo 2.75 0.92 0.39 24.5% 20.6% 11.2%
Aleksandr Golovin 1.74 0.84 0.23 46.8% 37.6% 15.9%
Matthis Abline 2.61 0.83 0.25 51.5% 66.3% 19.6%
Denis Zakaria 1.03 0.3 0.15 24.5% 25.1% 13.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Strasbourg clean sheet 20.1%
Monaco clean sheet 18.8%
Strasbourg win to nil 15.7%
Monaco win to nil 14.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.5% draw 24.1% away 36.4%
double_chance
1X 63.7% 12 75.9% X2 60.5%
dnb
home 52.1% away 47.9%
btts
yes 65.3% no 34.7%
clean_sheet
home 20.2% away 18.9%
win_to_nil
home 15.9% away 14.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.0% home_by_2 11.9% home_by_3plus 8.6%
away_by_1 18.2% away_by_2 10.9% away_by_3plus 7.2%
correct_score
0-0 4.4% 0-1 5.6% 0-2 4.9%
0-3 2.6% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 5.8% 1-1 10.6% 1-2 8.1%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.3% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.6% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 2.0% 3-4 0.8% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.7% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 84.2%
under_1.5 15.8% over_2.5 63.5% under_2.5 36.5%
over_3.5 41.4% under_3.5 58.6% over_4.5 23.4%
under_4.5 76.6% over_5.5 11.6% under_5.5 88.4%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 81.1% under_0.5 18.9% over_1.5 49.9%
under_1.5 50.1% over_2.5 23.7% under_2.5 76.3%
team_away
over_0.5 79.8% under_0.5 20.2% over_1.5 47.5%
under_1.5 52.5% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
most
home 39.5% draw 24.1% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.6% away_+2.5 91.5% home_-1.5 20.5%
away_+1.5 79.5% home_-0.5 39.5% away_+0.5 60.5%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.4% home_+1.5 81.9%
away_-1.5 18.1% home_+2.5 92.8% away_-2.5 7.2%
total_exact
exact_0 4.4% exact_1 11.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 18.0% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.5% exact_7plus 5.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 39.7% away 28.0%
total
over_0.5 73.2% under_0.5 26.8% over_1.5 38.0%
under_1.5 62.1% over_2.5 14.7% under_2.5 85.3%
btts
yes 23.2% no 76.8%
total_exact
exact_0 26.8% exact_1 35.3% exact_2 23.3%
exact_3 10.2% exact_4plus 4.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.9% draw 29.5% away 33.6%
total
over_0.5 88.4% under_0.5 11.6% over_1.5 63.3%
under_1.5 36.7% over_2.5 36.4% under_2.5 63.6%
btts
yes 43.4% no 56.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.6% H/D 5.5% H/A 3.3%
D/H 14.7% D/D 11.7% D/A 13.3%
A/H 3.4% A/D 5.2% A/A 19.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.7% under_7.5 27.3% over_8.5 61.1%
under_8.5 38.9% over_9.5 48.9% under_9.5 51.1%
over_10.5 37.3% under_10.5 62.7% over_11.5 27.1%
under_11.5 72.9% over_12.5 18.7% under_12.5 81.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.3% under_3.5 28.7% over_4.5 55.5%
under_4.5 44.5% over_5.5 40.2% under_5.5 59.9%
team_away
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 46.0%
under_4.5 54.0% over_5.5 30.9% under_5.5 69.1%
most
home 50.8% draw 10.9% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.2% away_+3.5 78.8% home_-1.5 39.9%
away_+1.5 60.1% home_-0.5 50.8% away_+0.5 49.2%
home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3% home_+1.5 71.7%
away_-1.5 28.3% home_+3.5 86.9% away_-3.5 13.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.8% under_22.5 32.2% over_24.5 55.7%
under_24.5 44.3% over_26.5 43.3% under_26.5 56.7%
over_28.5 31.9% under_28.5 68.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.7% under_10.5 26.3% over_12.5 57.4%
under_12.5 42.6% over_14.5 40.8% under_14.5 59.2%
team_away
over_10.5 60.9% under_10.5 39.1% over_12.5 42.8%
under_12.5 57.2% over_14.5 27.1% under_14.5 72.9%
most
home 57.1% draw 6.1% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.6% away_+4.5 67.4% home_-2.5 44.6%
away_+2.5 55.4% home_-0.5 57.1% away_+0.5 42.9%
home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8% home_+2.5 74.3%
away_-2.5 25.7% home_+4.5 83.3% away_-4.5 16.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.2% under_6.5 19.8% over_7.5 69.8%
under_7.5 30.2% over_8.5 58.1% under_8.5 41.9%
over_9.5 46.1% under_9.5 53.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.9% under_3.5 30.1% over_4.5 53.3%
under_4.5 46.7% over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
team_away
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 29.9% under_5.5 70.1%
most
home 49.4% draw 12.1% away 38.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.7% away_+2.5 73.3% home_-0.5 49.4%
away_+0.5 50.6% home_+0.5 61.5% away_-0.5 38.5%
home_+2.5 81.7% away_-2.5 18.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.8% under_2.5 30.3% over_3.5 48.5%
under_3.5 51.5% over_4.5 29.4% under_4.5 70.6%
over_5.5 15.6% under_5.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.6% under_1.5 51.4% over_2.5 22.5%
under_2.5 77.5%
team_away
over_1.5 58.5% under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 31.5%
under_2.5 68.5%
most
home 32.4% draw 21.6% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.8% away_+1.5 84.2% home_-0.5 32.4%
away_+0.5 67.6% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 74.2% away_-1.5 25.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.3% under_20.5 29.7% over_22.5 56.4%
under_22.5 43.6% over_24.5 42.1% under_24.5 57.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.9% under_9.5 34.1% over_11.5 45.0%
under_11.5 55.0% over_13.5 26.6% under_13.5 73.4%
team_away
over_9.5 75.1% under_9.5 24.9% over_11.5 56.0%
under_11.5 44.0% over_13.5 36.7% under_13.5 63.3%
most
home 38.7% draw 7.1% away 54.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.2% away_+3.5 79.8% home_-0.5 38.7%
away_+0.5 61.3% home_+2.5 60.3% away_-2.5 39.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.8% no 82.3%
home
yes 10.5% no 89.6%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Strasbourg predictions · Monaco predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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