Paris FC vs Lyon prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Paris FC vs Lyon: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Paris FC

LWDWW

Sat, 12 Sep 202619:45UK23°C · Clear
Lyon

LLWDW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Paris FC or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.006 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Paris FCWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Paris FC or draw67.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 8.5 corners60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Paris FC at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 12 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 37% for Paris FC. The gap itself is information. • Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. • Luca Koleosho drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Paris FC, 2 draws and 0 for Lyon over 2 games, 4.0 goals on average. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Paris FC against W3 D1 L2 for Lyon. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.006 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Lyon win32.7%@ 3.06
Over 11.5 corners30.2%@ 3.31
Medium risk

Draw or Lyon59.1%@ 1.69
Both teams to score57.3%@ 1.75
Over 2.5 goals53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.60
1-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.17

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paris FC

40.9%+3.8%

Draw

26.4%+0.6%

Lyon

32.7%-4.4%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.006 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersParis FC54.4%Lyon34.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.7%

Good chance

Over 26.540.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Paris FC14.7 taken11.8 faced
Lyon16.3 taken12.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Paris FC (3 games)

6.7 / 7.7

Lyon (3 games)

5.0 / 10.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.5%2.553.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.006 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

Paris FCLWDWW
LyonLLWDW

Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 0 · 2 draws · Lyon 0 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-03-08Lyon 1-1 Paris FC
2025-10-29Paris FC 3-3 Lyon

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Paris FCLyon
League position#3 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-02-1-0
Current streakW2W1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Luca KoleoshoParis FC · key player
To score13.3%

@ 7.52

1+ on target40.7%

@ 2.46

2+ shots29.9%

@ 3.34

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.39
Ernest NuamahLyon · key player
To score14.1%

@ 7.09

1+ on target41.5%

@ 2.41

2+ shots38.9%

@ 2.57

Shots/90 2.83SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.32
Lassine SinayokoParis FC · in form
To score27.3%

@ 3.66

1+ on target59.6%

@ 1.68

2+ shots69.1%

@ 1.45

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.37
Loïs OpendaLyon · in form
To score14.4%

@ 6.94

1+ on target49.1%

@ 2.04

2+ shots57.5%

@ 1.74

Shots/90 3.23SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.26
Vincent MarchettiParis FC · in form
To score11.9%

@ 8.40

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots29.5%

@ 3.39

Shots/90 2.92SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.34
Pavel SulcLyon · in form
To score28.4%

@ 3.52

1+ on target45.1%

@ 2.22

2+ shots44.3%

@ 2.26

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.54

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Paris FC win2.552.45
Draw3.603.78
Lyon win2.553.06
Over 2.5 goals1.671.88
Under 2.5 goals2.202.13

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paris FC win2.56
Draw3.79
Lyon win2.90
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.88
Over 3.5 goals3.24
Paris FC most2.56
Lyon most2.90

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Paris FC most1.83
Lyon most2.86

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.03
Over 4.5 cards3.32
Over 5.5 cards6.20
Paris FC most2.22
Lyon most2.99

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.59
Over 8.5 SoT1.99
Over 9.5 SoT2.61
Paris FC most1.96
Lyon most2.75

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.90
Over 26.5 shots2.48
Over 28.5 shots3.43
Paris FC most1.65
Lyon most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.50
Over 22.5 fouls1.92
Over 24.5 fouls2.64
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.2% Over 24.5 52.7% Over 26.5 40.4% Over 28.5 29.2%
Most: Paris FC 60.5% Most: Lyon 33.5%
Paris FC Over 13.2 49.2% Lyon Over 13.2 30.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.6% Over 7.5 62.8% Over 8.5 50.3% Over 9.5 38.3%
Most: Paris FC 51.1% Most: Lyon 36.4%
Paris FC Over 4.2 49.1% Lyon Over 4.2 38.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.4% Over 3.5 49.3% Over 4.5 30.1%
Most: Paris FC 45.0% Most: Lyon 33.4%
Paris FC Over 1.8 58.4% Lyon Over 1.8 49.9%

Paris FC: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Luca Koleosho 3 1.43 0.39 40.7% 29.9% 13.3%
Lassine Sinayoko 2.78 1.05 0.37 59.6% 69.1% 27.3%
Vincent Marchetti 2.92 0.9 0.34 28.4% 29.5% 11.9%
Pablo Pagis 2.85 0.85 0.45 46.0% 61.1% 27.8%
Ilan Kebbal 2.09 0.79 0.32 49.7% 54.2% 24.3%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Ernest Nuamah 2.83 1.13 0.32 41.5% 38.9% 14.1%
Loïs Openda 3.23 1.13 0.26 49.1% 57.5% 14.4%
Pavel Sulc 2.43 0.97 0.54 45.1% 44.3% 28.4%
Malick Fofana 2.05 0.95 0.32 44.4% 36.2% 17.9%
Corentin Tolisso 2.02 0.85 0.32 51.6% 51.5% 23.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paris FC clean sheet 25.9%
Lyon clean sheet 23.4%
Paris FC win to nil 19.2%
Lyon win to nil 16.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.1% draw 26.4% away 34.5%
double_chance
1X 65.5% 12 73.6% X2 60.9%
dnb
home 53.1% away 46.9%
btts
yes 57.3% no 42.7%
clean_sheet
home 25.9% away 23.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.3% away 16.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.2% home_by_2 11.7% home_by_3plus 7.2%
away_by_1 18.7% away_by_2 10.2% away_by_3plus 5.6%
correct_score
0-0 6.7% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.2% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.4% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.1% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.3% under_0.5 6.7% over_1.5 77.5%
under_1.5 22.5% over_2.5 53.1% under_2.5 46.9%
over_3.5 30.9% under_3.5 69.1% over_4.5 15.3%
under_4.5 84.7% over_5.5 6.6% under_5.5 93.5%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 18.0% under_2.5 82.1%
team_away
over_0.5 74.1% under_0.5 25.9% over_1.5 39.1%
under_1.5 60.9% over_2.5 15.5% under_2.5 84.6%
most
home 39.1% draw 26.4% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.2% away_+2.5 92.8% home_-1.5 18.9%
away_+1.5 81.1% home_-0.5 39.1% away_+0.5 60.9%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+1.5 84.3%
away_-1.5 15.8% home_+2.5 94.4% away_-2.5 5.6%
total_exact
exact_0 6.7% exact_1 15.8% exact_2 24.4%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.6% exact_5 8.7%
exact_6 4.1% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 42.6% away 28.9%
total
over_0.5 69.0% under_0.5 31.0% over_1.5 32.7%
under_1.5 67.4% over_2.5 11.4% under_2.5 88.6%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
total_exact
exact_0 31.0% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.2%
exact_3 8.3% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.4% draw 35.1% away 30.6%
total
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.1%
under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.9%
btts
yes 30.7% no 69.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.4% H/D 4.9% H/A 2.2%
D/H 14.6% D/D 14.9% D/A 13.0%
A/H 2.7% A/D 5.5% A/A 20.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.4% under_7.5 25.6% over_8.5 63.1%
under_8.5 37.0% over_9.5 51.0% under_9.5 49.0%
over_10.5 39.3% under_10.5 60.7% over_11.5 28.9%
under_11.5 71.1% over_12.5 20.2% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.6% over_4.5 59.4%
under_4.5 40.6% over_5.5 44.1% under_5.5 55.9%
team_away
over_3.5 61.6% under_3.5 38.4% over_4.5 44.5%
under_4.5 55.5% over_5.5 29.6% under_5.5 70.4%
most
home 54.5% draw 10.6% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.5% away_+0.5 45.5%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+1.5 74.6%
away_-1.5 25.4% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.2% under_22.5 34.8% over_24.5 52.7%
under_24.5 47.3% over_26.5 40.4% under_26.5 59.6%
over_28.5 29.2% under_28.5 70.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.9% under_10.5 26.1% over_12.5 57.7%
under_12.5 42.3% over_14.5 41.1% under_14.5 58.9%
team_away
over_10.5 56.4% under_10.5 43.6% over_12.5 38.1%
under_12.5 61.9% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.9%
most
home 60.5% draw 6.0% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.5% away_+4.5 64.5% home_-2.5 47.9%
away_+2.5 52.1% home_-0.5 60.5% away_+0.5 39.5%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5% home_+2.5 77.2%
away_-2.5 22.8% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.6% under_6.5 25.4% over_7.5 62.8%
under_7.5 37.2% over_8.5 50.3% under_8.5 49.7%
over_9.5 38.3% under_9.5 61.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.3% under_3.5 33.7% over_4.5 49.1%
under_4.5 50.9% over_5.5 33.3% under_5.5 66.7%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 38.4%
under_4.5 61.6% over_5.5 23.8% under_5.5 76.2%
most
home 51.1% draw 12.5% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.2% away_+2.5 72.8% home_-0.5 51.1%
away_+0.5 48.9% home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4%
home_+2.5 83.8% away_-2.5 16.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.4% under_2.5 29.6% over_3.5 49.3%
under_3.5 50.7% over_4.5 30.1% under_4.5 69.9%
over_5.5 16.1% under_5.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.4% under_1.5 41.6% over_2.5 31.3%
under_2.5 68.7%
team_away
over_1.5 49.9% under_1.5 50.1% over_2.5 23.6%
under_2.5 76.4%
most
home 45.0% draw 21.6% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 25.2% away_+1.5 74.8% home_-0.5 45.0%
away_+0.5 55.0% home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4%
home_+1.5 83.5% away_-1.5 16.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 66.5% under_20.5 33.5% over_22.5 52.1%
under_22.5 47.9% over_24.5 37.8% under_24.5 62.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 69.5% under_9.5 30.5% over_11.5 49.1%
under_11.5 50.9% over_13.5 30.2% under_13.5 69.8%
team_away
over_9.5 66.7% under_9.5 33.3% over_11.5 45.9%
under_11.5 54.1% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
most
home 48.6% draw 7.4% away 44.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.7% away_+3.5 72.3% home_-0.5 48.6%
away_+0.5 51.4% home_+2.5 69.9% away_-2.5 30.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.1% no 79.9%
home
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
away
yes 6.8% no 93.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paris FC predictions · Lyon predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 1Paris FCLyonTrack record