Auxerre vs Nice prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Auxerre vs Nice: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Auxerre

WWLLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202619:45UK25°C · Clearing
Nice

LDDLD

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Auxerre or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AuxerreWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Auxerre or draw68.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Over 8.5 corners60.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Auxerre at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 12 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Auxerre than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Theo Bair drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Auxerre against W0 D4 L2 for Nice. The recent series reads 2 wins for Auxerre, 2 draws and 1 for Nice over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.9%@ 2.51
Nice win31.4%@ 3.18
Over 11.5 corners30.7%@ 3.26
Medium risk

Draw or Nice59.1%@ 1.69
Both teams to score54.6%@ 1.83
Under 2.5 goals50.3%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.74
1-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.91
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.60

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Auxerre

40.9%+4.5%

Draw

27.7%-1.1%

Nice

31.4%-3.4%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes54.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.2%

Good chance

Over 10.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersAuxerre54.3%Nice35.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.5%

Good chance

Over 26.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.1%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Auxerre12.7 taken13.2 faced
Nice13.0 taken12.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Auxerre (3 games)

6.0 / 6.3

Nice (3 games)

4.7 / 7.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.1%2.549.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.1%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

AuxerreWWLLL
NiceLDDLD

Last 5 meetings: Auxerre 2 · 2 draws · Nice 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-10Auxerre 2-1 Nice
2025-08-23Nice 3-1 Auxerre
2025-03-14Nice 1-1 Auxerre
2024-08-18Auxerre 2-1 Nice
2023-03-03Nice 1-1 Auxerre

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AuxerreNice
League position#18 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-30-2-1
Current streakL3D1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 3.11 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 63%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Theo BairAuxerre · key player
To score6.7%

@ 14.93

1+ on target33.9%

@ 2.95

2+ shots21.4%

@ 4.67

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.24
Isak JanssonNice · key player
To score4.2%

@ 23.81

1+ on target35.2%

@ 2.84

2+ shots15.4%

@ 6.49

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.14
Remy Labeau LascaryAuxerre · in form
To score18.2%

@ 5.49

1+ on target43.6%

@ 2.29

2+ shots36.5%

@ 2.74

Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.4
Sepe Elye WahiNice · in form
To score16.6%

@ 6.02

1+ on target47.1%

@ 2.12

2+ shots33.9%

@ 2.95

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.38
Romain FaivreAuxerre · in form
To score9.3%

@ 10.75

1+ on target37.2%

@ 2.69

2+ shots25.3%

@ 3.95

Shots/90 1.79SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.18
Nathan N'Goumou MinpolNice · in form
To score9.3%

@ 10.75

1+ on target42.4%

@ 2.36

2+ shots35.5%

@ 2.82

Shots/90 2.31SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.18

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Auxerre win2.632.45
Draw3.303.61
Nice win2.753.18
Over 2.5 goals1.982.01
Under 2.5 goals1.881.99

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Auxerre win2.52
Draw3.68
Nice win3.01
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.01
Over 3.5 goals3.60
Auxerre most2.52
Nice most3.01

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Auxerre most1.84
Nice most2.85

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.89
Over 4.5 cards2.98
Over 5.5 cards5.34
Auxerre most2.95
Nice most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.90
Over 9.5 SoT2.47
Auxerre most1.98
Nice most2.69

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.56
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.55
Over 28.5 shots3.57
Auxerre most1.59
Nice most3.19

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.37
Over 22.5 fouls1.68
Over 24.5 fouls2.20
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.0% Over 24.5 51.5% Over 26.5 39.1% Over 28.5 28.0%
Most: Auxerre 62.8% Most: Nice 31.3%
Auxerre Over 13.2 49.9% Nice Over 13.2 27.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.3% Over 7.5 64.9% Over 8.5 52.6% Over 9.5 40.5%
Most: Auxerre 50.4% Most: Nice 37.2%
Auxerre Over 4.2 50.1% Nice Over 4.2 40.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.4% Over 3.5 53.0% Over 4.5 33.6%
Most: Auxerre 33.9% Most: Nice 45.1%
Auxerre Over 1.8 52.7% Nice Over 1.8 60.8%

Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Theo Bair 3 1.44 0.24 33.9% 21.4% 6.7%
Remy Labeau Lascary 2.54 1.14 0.4 43.6% 36.5% 18.2%
Romain Faivre 1.79 0.86 0.18 37.2% 25.3% 9.3%
Cameron Archer 1.84 0.7 0.19 28.4% 22.0% 8.7%
Danny Namaso 2.13 0.61 0.13 43.6% 59.4% 11.5%

Nice: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Isak Jansson 2.26 1.41 0.14 35.2% 15.4% 4.2%
Sepe Elye Wahi 2.52 1.33 0.38 47.1% 33.9% 16.6%
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol 2.31 1.02 0.18 42.4% 35.5% 9.3%
Mohammed Amoura 2.75 0.92 0.36 52.3% 64.8% 25.1%
Sofiane Diop 2.04 0.76 0.37 36.5% 34.5% 19.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Auxerre clean sheet 28.3%
Nice clean sheet 24.6%
Auxerre win to nil 20.7%
Nice win to nil 17.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.6% draw 27.2% away 33.2%
double_chance
1X 66.8% 12 72.9% X2 60.4%
dnb
home 54.4% away 45.6%
btts
yes 54.6% no 45.4%
clean_sheet
home 28.3% away 24.7%
win_to_nil
home 20.8% away 17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.7% home_by_2 11.9% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 18.6% away_by_2 9.7% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.6% 0-1 8.2% 0-2 5.6%
0-3 2.4% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.2% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.9% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.4% under_0.5 7.6% over_1.5 75.1%
under_1.5 24.9% over_2.5 49.7% under_2.5 50.3%
over_3.5 27.8% under_3.5 72.2% over_4.5 13.2%
under_4.5 86.8% over_5.5 5.4% under_5.5 94.6%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 75.3% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.8%
under_1.5 59.2% over_2.5 16.7% under_2.5 83.3%
team_away
over_0.5 71.7% under_0.5 28.3% over_1.5 36.0%
under_1.5 64.0% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
most
home 39.6% draw 27.2% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 18.9%
away_+1.5 81.1% home_-0.5 39.6% away_+0.5 60.4%
home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2% home_+1.5 85.4%
away_-1.5 14.6% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.6% exact_1 17.3% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.6% exact_5 7.8%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.3% draw 39.7% away 25.0%
total
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.5%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
btts
yes 22.6% no 77.4%
total_exact
exact_0 27.1% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.1%
exact_3 10.1% exact_4plus 4.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.5% draw 40.2% away 27.4%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.0% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.0% H/D 5.5% H/A 1.8%
D/H 12.9% D/D 15.9% D/A 10.9%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.8% A/A 18.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.8% under_7.5 25.2% over_8.5 63.5%
under_8.5 36.5% over_9.5 51.5% under_9.5 48.5%
over_10.5 39.9% under_10.5 60.2% over_11.5 29.4%
under_11.5 70.6% over_12.5 20.6% under_12.5 79.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.6% under_3.5 25.4% over_4.5 59.6%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 62.0% under_3.5 38.0% over_4.5 44.9%
under_4.5 55.1% over_5.5 30.0% under_5.5 70.0%
most
home 54.4% draw 10.5% away 35.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.3% away_+3.5 75.7% home_-1.5 43.6%
away_+1.5 56.4% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 65.0% away_-0.5 35.0% home_+1.5 74.5%
away_-1.5 25.6% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.0% under_22.5 36.0% over_24.5 51.5%
under_24.5 48.5% over_26.5 39.1% under_26.5 60.9%
over_28.5 28.1% under_28.5 72.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.5% under_10.5 25.6% over_12.5 58.3%
under_12.5 41.7% over_14.5 41.8% under_14.5 58.2%
team_away
over_10.5 53.8% under_10.5 46.2% over_12.5 35.6%
under_12.5 64.4% over_14.5 21.1% under_14.5 78.9%
most
home 62.8% draw 5.9% away 31.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 50.2%
away_+2.5 49.8% home_-0.5 62.8% away_+0.5 37.2%
home_+0.5 68.7% away_-0.5 31.3% home_+2.5 79.0%
away_-2.5 21.0% home_+4.5 87.0% away_-4.5 13.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.3% under_6.5 23.7% over_7.5 64.9%
under_7.5 35.1% over_8.5 52.6% under_8.5 47.4%
over_9.5 40.5% under_9.5 59.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.2% under_3.5 32.8% over_4.5 50.1%
under_4.5 49.9% over_5.5 34.4% under_5.5 65.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.5% under_3.5 41.5% over_4.5 40.5%
under_4.5 59.5% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 50.4% draw 12.4% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.9% away_+2.5 73.1% home_-0.5 50.4%
away_+0.5 49.6% home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2%
home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.4% under_2.5 26.6% over_3.5 53.0%
under_3.5 47.0% over_4.5 33.6% under_4.5 66.4%
over_5.5 18.7% under_5.5 81.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.7% under_1.5 47.3% over_2.5 26.1%
under_2.5 73.9%
team_away
over_1.5 60.8% under_1.5 39.2% over_2.5 33.7%
under_2.5 66.3%
most
home 33.9% draw 21.0% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.2% away_+1.5 82.8% home_-0.5 33.9%
away_+0.5 66.1% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1%
home_+1.5 74.4% away_-1.5 25.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 73.1% under_20.5 26.9% over_22.5 59.7%
under_22.5 40.3% over_24.5 45.5% under_24.5 54.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.1% under_9.5 25.9% over_11.5 54.7%
under_11.5 45.3% over_13.5 35.4% under_13.5 64.6%
team_away
over_9.5 71.3% under_9.5 28.7% over_11.5 51.2%
under_11.5 48.8% over_13.5 32.1% under_13.5 67.9%
most
home 48.9% draw 7.2% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-0.5 48.9%
away_+0.5 51.1% home_+2.5 69.6% away_-2.5 30.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.1% no 80.9%
home
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
away
yes 9.1% no 90.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Auxerre predictions · Nice predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1AuxerreNiceTrack record