Ipswich vs Liverpool: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 2 Sep 2026

Premier League

Ipswich

LLLWL

Full time0-2Fri, 4 Sep 202620:00UK19°C · Cloudy

Liverpool

DLDDD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Draw or Liverpool

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Liverpool at 53.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 58.8% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.6% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 59.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 89.0% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.7% and it missed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.9% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 53.5% and it missed (24 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.9% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 88.4% and it landed.

Match data	Ipswich	Liverpool
Goals, 1st half	0	2
Goals, 2nd half	0	0
Shots	14	10
Shots, 1st half	8	7
Shots, 2nd half	6	3
Shots on target	5	7
Corners	4	3
Yellow cards	1	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	6	13
Expected goals (xG)	0.60	0.74

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

LiverpoolWin probability

53.3%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.23

Draw or Liverpool76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.30

Over 8.5 corners61.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Liverpool heavy favourites at 53% when Ipswich meet Liverpool in the Premier League on 4 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Ipswich carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Sammie Szmodics drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The recent series reads 0 wins for Ipswich, 0 draws and 2 for Liverpool over 2 games, 3.5 goals on average. On the availability front, Liverpool have Jaros ruled out, Gomez ruled out, Bradley ruled out, Leoni ruled out. Form guide over the last six: Ipswich W1 D1 L4, Liverpool W0 D4 L2. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Ipswich or draw46.7%@ 2.14

Over 10.5 corners41.0%@ 2.44

Over 11.5 corners32.2%@ 3.11

Medium risk

Both teams to score59.6%@ 1.68

Over 2.5 goals58.8%@ 1.70

Over 9.5 corners50.8%@ 1.97

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.04

1-2 correct score9.7%@ 10.31

0-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ipswich

23.4%

Draw

23.4%

Liverpool

53.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.3%

High probability

Over 2.558.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.8%

Good chance

Over 10.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersIpswich44.9%Liverpool44.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.5%

Good chance

Over 26.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.7%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.3%2.558.8%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.3%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

IpswichLLLWL

LiverpoolDLDDD

Last 2 meetings: Ipswich 0 · 0 draws · Liverpool 2 · 3.5 goals/game.

2025-01-25Liverpool 4-1 Ipswich

2024-08-17Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ipswich

Liverpool

League position#12 of 20#13 of 20

Record W-D-L1-0-10-2-0

Current streakL1D2

Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.10 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Sammie SzmodicsIpswich · key player

To score16.3%

@ 6.13

1+ on target47.5%

@ 2.11

2+ shots32.9%

@ 3.04

Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.32

Mohamed SalahLiverpool · key player

To score41.2%

@ 2.43

1+ on target68.5%

@ 1.46

2+ shots80.3%

@ 1.25

Shots/90 3.18SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.56

Liam DelapIpswich · in form

To score27.7%

@ 3.61

1+ on target57.5%

@ 1.74

2+ shots56.2%

@ 1.78

Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.41

Diogo JotaLiverpool · in form

To score19.5%

@ 5.13

1+ on target40.6%

@ 2.46

2+ shots55.7%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 4.06SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.47

Nathan BroadheadIpswich · in form

To score10.7%

@ 9.35

1+ on target35.8%

@ 2.79

2+ shots16.4%

@ 6.10

Shots/90 1.73SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.27

Darwin NúñezLiverpool · in form

To score16.4%

@ 6.10

1+ on target37.2%

@ 2.69

2+ shots33.0%

@ 3.03

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ipswich win4.08

Draw4.19

Liverpool win1.94

Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06

Over 1.5 goals1.23

Over 2.5 goals1.70

Over 3.5 goals2.75

Ipswich most4.08

Liverpool most1.94

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33

Over 8.5 corners1.55

Over 9.5 corners1.90

Over 10.5 corners2.43

Ipswich most2.22

Liverpool most2.24

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38

Over 3.5 cards1.93

Over 4.5 cards3.08

Over 5.5 cards5.59

Ipswich most2.72

Liverpool most2.39

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35

Over 7.5 SoT1.59

Over 8.5 SoT1.96

Over 9.5 SoT2.52

Ipswich most2.24

Liverpool most2.31

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54

Over 24.5 shots1.87

Over 26.5 shots2.37

Over 28.5 shots3.15

Ipswich most1.89

Liverpool most2.41

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.73

Over 22.5 fouls2.40

Over 24.5 fouls3.69

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

JarosLiverpoolOut0% to play
GomezLiverpoolOut0% to play
BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
ChiesaLiverpoolOut0% to play
EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
DannsLiverpoolOut0% to play
Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.2%	Over 7.5	62.9%	Over 8.5	51.0%	Over 9.5	39.7%
Most: Ipswich	44.6%	Most: Liverpool	43.3%
Ipswich Over 4.2	44.7%	Liverpool Over 4.2	43.9%

Cards

Over 2.5	72.5%	Over 3.5	51.9%	Over 4.5	32.5%
Most: Ipswich	36.8%	Most: Liverpool	41.9%
Ipswich Over 1.8	54.2%	Liverpool Over 1.8	57.9%

Ipswich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Sammie Szmodics	2.12	1.16	0.32	47.5%	32.9%	16.3%
Liam Delap	2.38	1.08	0.41	57.5%	56.2%	27.7%
Nathan Broadhead	1.73	1.06	0.27	35.8%	16.4%	10.7%
George Hirst	2.07	1.03	0.44	23.5%	10.2%	10.8%
Julio Enciso	3.24	1.02	0.17	54.9%	71.9%	12.4%

Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Mohamed Salah	3.18	1.22	0.56	68.5%	80.3%	41.2%
Diogo Jota	4.06	1.13	0.47	40.6%	55.7%	19.5%
Darwin Núñez	2.84	1.12	0.43	37.2%	33.0%	16.4%
Luis Díaz	2.58	1.06	0.41	54.4%	56.9%	26.2%
Hugo Ekitike	3.19	0.93	0.54	49.2%	67.4%	32.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ipswich clean sheet	15.8%
Liverpool clean sheet	29.5%
Ipswich win to nil	10.6%
Liverpool win to nil	24.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	24.5%	draw	23.9%	away	51.6%

double_chance

1X	48.4%	12	76.1%	X2	75.5%

dnb

home	32.2%	away	67.8%

btts

yes	59.6%	no	40.4%

clean_sheet

home	15.9%	away	29.8%

win_to_nil

home	10.6%	away	24.6%

winning_margin

home_by_1	14.4%	home_by_2	6.9%	home_by_3plus	3.2%
away_by_1	22.2%	away_by_2	15.9%	away_by_3plus	13.5%

correct_score

0-0	5.3%	0-1	8.2%	0-2	8.0%
0-3	4.9%	0-4	2.3%	0-5	0.8%
1-0	5.2%	1-1	11.1%	1-2	9.7%
1-3	5.9%	1-4	2.7%	1-5	1.0%
2-0	3.5%	2-1	6.4%	2-2	5.9%
2-3	3.6%	2-4	1.7%	2-5	0.6%
3-0	1.4%	3-1	2.6%	3-2	2.4%
3-3	1.5%	3-4	0.7%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.4%	4-1	0.8%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.1%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	94.7%	under_0.5	5.3%	over_1.5	81.4%
under_1.5	18.7%	over_2.5	58.8%	under_2.5	41.2%
over_3.5	36.4%	under_3.5	63.6%	over_4.5	19.3%
under_4.5	80.7%	over_5.5	8.9%	under_5.5	91.1%

odd_even

odd	48.8%	even	51.2%

team_home

over_0.5	70.2%	under_0.5	29.8%	over_1.5	34.1%
under_1.5	65.9%	over_2.5	12.3%	under_2.5	87.7%

team_away

over_0.5	84.1%	under_0.5	15.9%	over_1.5	54.9%
under_1.5	45.1%	over_2.5	28.0%	under_2.5	72.0%

most

home	24.5%	draw	23.9%	away	51.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	3.2%	away_+2.5	96.8%	home_-1.5	10.1%
away_+1.5	89.9%	home_-0.5	24.5%	away_+0.5	75.5%
home_+0.5	48.4%	away_-0.5	51.6%	home_+1.5	70.6%
away_-1.5	29.4%	home_+2.5	86.5%	away_-2.5	13.5%

total_exact

exact_0	5.3%	exact_1	13.4%	exact_2	22.5%
exact_3	22.4%	exact_4	17.1%	exact_5	10.4%
exact_6	5.3%	exact_7plus	3.6%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.0%	draw	37.8%	away	33.2%

total

over_0.5	76.1%	under_0.5	23.9%	over_1.5	41.9%
under_1.5	58.1%	over_2.5	17.4%	under_2.5	82.6%

btts

yes	26.1%	no	73.9%

total_exact

exact_0	23.9%	exact_1	34.2%	exact_2	24.5%
exact_3	11.7%	exact_4plus	5.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.9%	draw	27.2%	away	51.9%

total

over_0.5	89.0%	under_0.5	11.0%	over_1.5	64.8%
under_1.5	35.2%	over_2.5	38.0%	under_2.5	62.0%

btts

yes	41.4%	no	58.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	16.4%	H/D	6.6%	H/A	6.1%
D/H	7.9%	D/D	10.3%	D/A	19.6%
A/H	1.6%	A/D	3.8%	A/A	27.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	75.3%	under_7.5	24.7%	over_8.5	64.3%
under_8.5	35.7%	over_9.5	52.7%	under_9.5	47.3%
over_10.5	41.2%	under_10.5	58.8%	over_11.5	30.8%
under_11.5	69.2%	over_12.5	22.0%	under_12.5	78.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.6%	under_3.5	31.4%	over_4.5	53.0%
under_4.5	47.0%	over_5.5	38.3%	under_5.5	61.7%

team_away

over_3.5	68.4%	under_3.5	31.7%	over_4.5	52.7%
under_4.5	47.3%	over_5.5	38.0%	under_5.5	62.0%

most

home	45.1%	draw	10.2%	away	44.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	18.7%	away_+3.5	81.3%	home_-1.5	35.2%
away_+1.5	64.8%	home_-0.5	45.1%	away_+0.5	54.9%
home_+0.5	55.3%	away_-0.5	44.7%	home_+1.5	65.2%
away_-1.5	34.8%	home_+3.5	81.5%	away_-3.5	18.5%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	64.9%	under_22.5	35.1%	over_24.5	53.5%
under_24.5	46.5%	over_26.5	42.2%	under_26.5	57.8%
over_28.5	31.7%	under_28.5	68.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	68.5%	under_10.5	31.5%	over_12.5	52.8%
under_12.5	47.2%	over_14.5	37.7%	under_14.5	62.3%

team_away

over_10.5	61.1%	under_10.5	38.9%	over_12.5	44.6%
under_12.5	55.4%	over_14.5	30.0%	under_14.5	70.0%

most

home	52.8%	draw	5.8%	away	41.4%

handicap

home_-4.5	30.4%	away_+4.5	69.6%	home_-2.5	41.2%
away_+2.5	58.8%	home_-0.5	52.8%	away_+0.5	47.2%
home_+0.5	58.6%	away_-0.5	41.4%	home_+2.5	69.5%
away_-2.5	30.5%	home_+4.5	78.8%	away_-4.5	21.2%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.2%	under_6.5	25.9%	over_7.5	62.9%
under_7.5	37.1%	over_8.5	51.0%	under_8.5	49.0%
over_9.5	39.7%	under_9.5	60.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	61.6%	under_3.5	38.5%	over_4.5	44.8%
under_4.5	55.3%	over_5.5	30.1%	under_5.5	69.9%

team_away

over_3.5	60.7%	under_3.5	39.3%	over_4.5	43.9%
under_4.5	56.2%	over_5.5	29.3%	under_5.5	70.7%

most

home	44.6%	draw	12.1%	away	43.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	23.0%	away_+2.5	77.0%	home_-0.5	44.6%
away_+0.5	55.4%	home_+0.5	56.7%	away_-0.5	43.3%
home_+2.5	77.9%	away_-2.5	22.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	72.5%	under_2.5	27.5%	over_3.5	51.9%
under_3.5	48.1%	over_4.5	32.5%	under_4.5	67.5%
over_5.5	17.9%	under_5.5	82.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	54.2%	under_1.5	45.8%	over_2.5	27.4%
under_2.5	72.6%

team_away

over_1.5	57.9%	under_1.5	42.1%	over_2.5	30.9%
under_2.5	69.2%

most

home	36.8%	draw	21.4%	away	41.9%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.1%	away_+1.5	80.9%	home_-0.5	36.8%
away_+0.5	63.2%	home_+0.5	58.1%	away_-0.5	41.9%
home_+1.5	77.0%	away_-1.5	23.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	57.9%	under_20.5	42.1%	over_22.5	41.6%
under_22.5	58.4%	over_24.5	27.1%	under_24.5	72.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	61.4%	under_9.5	38.6%	over_11.5	38.3%
under_11.5	61.7%	over_13.5	19.8%	under_13.5	80.2%

team_away

over_9.5	64.9%	under_9.5	35.1%	over_11.5	42.0%
under_11.5	58.0%	over_13.5	22.6%	under_13.5	77.4%

most

home	43.3%	draw	8.3%	away	48.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	21.4%	away_+3.5	78.6%	home_-0.5	43.3%
away_+0.5	56.8%	home_+2.5	67.5%	away_-2.5	32.5%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.6%	no	88.4%

home

yes	8.1%	no	91.9%

away

yes	3.8%	no	96.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ipswich predictions · Liverpool predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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