Shots

Over 22.5	62.8%	Over 24.5	50.2%	Over 26.5	37.8%	Over 28.5	26.9%
Most: Lille	64.2%	Most: Troyes	30.0%
Lille Over 13.2	50.0%	Troyes Over 13.2	25.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	73.8%	Over 7.5	61.8%	Over 8.5	49.2%	Over 9.5	37.3%
Most: Lille	58.0%	Most: Troyes	29.9%
Lille Over 4.2	53.0%	Troyes Over 4.2	32.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	69.4%	Over 3.5	48.1%	Over 4.5	29.0%
Most: Lille	37.0%	Most: Troyes	41.1%
Lille Over 1.8	51.9%	Troyes Over 1.8	54.9%

Lille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Ethan Mbappé	2.87	1.38	0.32	36.1%	23.9%	9.9%
Olivier Giroud	2.17	0.89	0.39	42.1%	38.5%	21.3%
Gaetan Perrin	1.88	0.88	0.31	46.5%	38.6%	19.8%
Dilane Bakwa	1.84	0.78	0.24	43.0%	38.3%	15.9%
Hákon Haraldsson	1.73	0.68	0.29	44.1%	43.5%	21.9%

Troyes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Dermane Karim	1.22	0.18	0.06	8.8%	12.9%	3.0%
Michel Diaz	0.49	0.1	0	8.4%	7.0%	0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lille clean sheet	42.4%
Troyes clean sheet	15.1%
Lille win to nil	35.4%
Troyes win to nil	8.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	61.5%	draw	22.8%	away	15.7%

double_chance

1X	84.3%	12	77.2%	X2	38.5%

dnb

home	79.7%	away	20.3%

btts

yes	49.0%	no	51.0%

clean_sheet

home	43.0%	away	15.1%

win_to_nil

home	36.0%	away	8.1%

winning_margin

home_by_1	24.5%	home_by_2	19.1%	home_by_3plus	17.9%
away_by_1	10.7%	away_by_2	3.8%	away_by_3plus	1.2%

correct_score

0-0	7.0%	0-1	5.0%	0-2	2.3%
0-3	0.7%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	11.7%	1-1	10.9%	1-2	4.4%
1-3	1.2%	1-4	0.3%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	11.6%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.1%
2-3	1.2%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.0%
3-0	7.3%	3-1	6.2%	3-2	2.6%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	3.5%	4-1	2.9%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.3%	5-1	1.1%	5-2	0.5%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	0.0%	p	11.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.0%	under_0.5	7.0%	over_1.5	76.3%
under_1.5	23.7%	over_2.5	51.6%	under_2.5	48.4%
over_3.5	29.4%	under_3.5	70.6%	over_4.5	14.3%
under_4.5	85.7%	over_5.5	6.0%	under_5.5	94.0%

odd_even

odd	48.8%	even	51.2%

team_home

over_0.5	84.9%	under_0.5	15.1%	over_1.5	56.4%
under_1.5	43.6%	over_2.5	29.4%	under_2.5	70.6%

team_away

over_0.5	57.1%	under_0.5	43.0%	over_1.5	20.8%
under_1.5	79.2%	over_2.5	5.5%	under_2.5	94.6%

most

home	61.5%	draw	22.8%	away	15.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	17.9%	away_+2.5	82.1%	home_-1.5	37.0%
away_+1.5	63.0%	home_-0.5	61.5%	away_+0.5	38.5%
home_+0.5	84.3%	away_-0.5	15.7%	home_+1.5	95.0%
away_-1.5	5.0%	home_+2.5	98.8%	away_-2.5	1.2%

total_exact

exact_0	7.0%	exact_1	16.7%	exact_2	24.8%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	15.2%	exact_5	8.3%
exact_6	3.8%	exact_7plus	2.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	33.1%	draw	43.6%	away	23.3%

total

over_0.5	67.2%	under_0.5	32.8%	over_1.5	30.6%
under_1.5	69.4%	over_2.5	10.3%	under_2.5	89.8%

btts

yes	17.9%	no	82.1%

total_exact

exact_0	32.8%	exact_1	36.6%	exact_2	20.4%
exact_3	7.6%	exact_4plus	2.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	58.1%	draw	28.8%	away	13.1%

total

over_0.5	83.3%	under_0.5	16.7%	over_1.5	53.4%
under_1.5	46.6%	over_2.5	26.6%	under_2.5	73.4%

btts

yes	27.4%	no	72.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.8%	H/D	2.7%	H/A	0.7%
D/H	25.3%	D/D	12.5%	D/A	5.7%
A/H	5.7%	A/D	6.2%	A/A	11.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.8%	under_7.5	28.2%	over_8.5	60.0%
under_8.5	40.0%	over_9.5	47.7%	under_9.5	52.3%
over_10.5	36.1%	under_10.5	63.9%	over_11.5	26.1%
under_11.5	74.0%	over_12.5	17.9%	under_12.5	82.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.1%	under_3.5	25.9%	over_4.5	59.0%
under_4.5	41.0%	over_5.5	43.8%	under_5.5	56.3%

team_away

over_3.5	57.7%	under_3.5	42.4%	over_4.5	40.3%
under_4.5	59.7%	over_5.5	25.8%	under_5.5	74.2%

most

home	57.0%	draw	10.6%	away	32.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.7%	away_+3.5	74.3%	home_-1.5	45.9%
away_+1.5	54.1%	home_-0.5	57.0%	away_+0.5	43.1%
home_+0.5	67.5%	away_-0.5	32.5%	home_+1.5	76.9%
away_-1.5	23.2%	home_+3.5	90.1%	away_-3.5	9.9%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	62.8%	under_22.5	37.2%	over_24.5	50.1%
under_24.5	49.9%	over_26.5	37.8%	under_26.5	62.2%
over_28.5	26.9%	under_28.5	73.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	74.5%	under_10.5	25.5%	over_12.5	58.4%
under_12.5	41.6%	over_14.5	41.8%	under_14.5	58.2%

team_away

over_10.5	51.7%	under_10.5	48.3%	over_12.5	33.6%
under_12.5	66.4%	over_14.5	19.5%	under_14.5	80.5%

most

home	64.2%	draw	5.8%	away	30.0%

handicap

home_-4.5	38.9%	away_+4.5	61.1%	home_-2.5	51.6%
away_+2.5	48.4%	home_-0.5	64.2%	away_+0.5	35.8%
home_+0.5	70.0%	away_-0.5	30.0%	home_+2.5	80.2%
away_-2.5	19.8%	home_+4.5	87.9%	away_-4.5	12.1%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	73.8%	under_6.5	26.2%	over_7.5	61.8%
under_7.5	38.2%	over_8.5	49.2%	under_8.5	50.8%
over_9.5	37.3%	under_9.5	62.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.7%	under_3.5	30.3%	over_4.5	53.0%
under_4.5	47.0%	over_5.5	37.1%	under_5.5	62.9%

team_away

over_3.5	50.4%	under_3.5	49.6%	over_4.5	32.5%
under_4.5	67.5%	over_5.5	19.0%	under_5.5	81.0%

most

home	58.0%	draw	12.0%	away	29.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	33.1%	away_+2.5	66.9%	home_-0.5	58.0%
away_+0.5	42.0%	home_+0.5	70.1%	away_-0.5	29.9%
home_+2.5	87.9%	away_-2.5	12.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	69.4%	under_2.5	30.6%	over_3.5	48.1%
under_3.5	51.9%	over_4.5	29.0%	under_4.5	71.0%
over_5.5	15.3%	under_5.5	84.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	51.9%	under_1.5	48.1%	over_2.5	25.3%
under_2.5	74.7%

team_away

over_1.5	54.9%	under_1.5	45.1%	over_2.5	28.0%
under_2.5	72.0%

most

home	37.0%	draw	22.0%	away	41.1%

handicap

home_-1.5	18.9%	away_+1.5	81.1%	home_-0.5	37.0%
away_+0.5	63.1%	home_+0.5	58.9%	away_-0.5	41.1%
home_+1.5	78.0%	away_-1.5	22.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	68.6%	under_20.5	31.4%	over_22.5	54.4%
under_22.5	45.6%	over_24.5	40.1%	under_24.5	59.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	66.9%	under_9.5	33.1%	over_11.5	46.1%
under_11.5	53.9%	over_13.5	27.5%	under_13.5	72.5%

team_away

over_9.5	72.0%	under_9.5	28.0%	over_11.5	52.1%
under_11.5	47.9%	over_13.5	33.0%	under_13.5	67.0%

most

home	42.1%	draw	7.3%	away	50.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.7%	away_+3.5	77.3%	home_-0.5	42.1%
away_+0.5	57.9%	home_+2.5	63.8%	away_-2.5	36.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	14.9%	no	85.1%

home

yes	6.8%	no	93.2%

away

yes	8.7%	no	91.3%