AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
TorinoTorinoWLDWW
Full time3-2Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:45UK10°C · Clear
MonzaMonzaDLWLW

Torino 3-2 Monza cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.6%

Result

Torino3-2Monza
1 yellow cardsTorino 1, Monza 0
0 red cardsTorino 0, Monza 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.4% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 94.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Torino vs Monza. It tips Monza for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.8% 35.2%
3.5 cards 43.6% 56.4%
4.5 cards 25.8% 74.2%
5.5 cards 13.5% 86.5%

Who picks up more cards

Torino
36.4%
Level
22.2%
Monza
41.4%

Team cards lines

Torino

Over 1.5
47.8%
Over 2.5
22.8%

Monza

Over 1.5
51.6%
Over 2.5
26.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Torino's; Monza gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Torino line Torino Monza
-1.5 18.5% 81.5%
-0.5 36.4% 63.6%
+0.5 58.6% 41.4%
+1.5 77.7% 22.3%

Red card

Any red card5.4%
Torino red card2.3%
Monza red card3.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.1% 29.9%
22.5 fouls 57.3% 42.7%
24.5 fouls 44.3% 55.8%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 43.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 64.8% for over 2.5 to 13.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.6%. Between the two sides, Monza are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 22.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Torino over 1.5 cards sits at 47.8% and Monza at 51.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.4% (Torino 2.3%, Monza 3.2%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

43.6%Over 3.5 cards
5.4%Any red card
41.4%Most cards: Monza
47.8%Torino over 1.5 cards
51.6%Monza over 1.5 cards
57.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMonza are the pick to collect more cards at 41.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 43.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Torino vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.6% for Torino vs Monza.
Will there be a red card in Torino vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Torino vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated Monza to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Cards

Roma vs Cagliari predictionTorino vs Como predictionAC Milan vs Bologna cards predictionParma vs Udinese cards predictionVenezia vs Inter cards predictionGenoa vs Juventus cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Serie ATorino fixtures and statsMonza fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.