ChampionshipSwansea vs 
Burnley Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.1% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. On the card count, Burnley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 20.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.4%
24.0%
63.8%
36.9%
Card handicap
| Swansea line | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.9% | 29.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 32.8% | 67.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Swansea cards per game9.3Swansea fouls per game2.5Burnley cards per game11.5Burnley fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Swansea vs Burnley. It tips Burnley for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.9%Over 3.5 cards10.4%Any red card50.4%Swansea over 1.5 cards63.8%Burnley over 1.5 cards47.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Swansea over 1.5 cards sits at 50.4% and Burnley at 63.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.4% (Swansea 1.8%, Burnley 8.7%). This season Swansea have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Burnley 2.5.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Swansea vs Burnley?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.9% for Swansea vs Burnley.
Will there be a red card in Swansea vs Burnley?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Swansea vs Burnley?
The model rates Burnley to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.