Olympiakos vs OFI Crete prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Olympiakos vs OFI Crete: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Olympiakos

WDWWD

Sat, 12 Sep 202617:00UK
OFI Crete

LWWLW

Model’s top convictions

88%

Olympiakos or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Not both teams to score

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
OlympiakosWin probability
67.0%
Top 3 convictions

Olympiakos or draw88.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.13
Over 1.5 goals74.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
teams to score57.2%Good chancePays @ 1.75

Model read

▾

Few Super League Greece fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Olympiakos carry a 67% win probability against OFI Crete on 12 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Olympiakos at 80%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 43%. The run in: Olympiakos arrive W3 D3 L0, OFI Crete W3 D0 L3. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Olympiakos, 0 draws and 0 for OFI Crete, averaging 2.6 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Draw or OFI Crete33.0%@ 3.03
Over 10.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals51.0%@ 1.96
Over 8.5 corners50.0%@ 2.00
Over 2.5 goals49.0%@ 2.04
Random finds

2-0 correct score13.6%@ 7.33
1-0 correct score13.5%@ 7.39
1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.00

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Olympiakos

67.0%-13.2%

Draw

21.4%+8.5%

OFI Crete

11.6%+4.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes42.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.0%

Good chance

Over 9.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.522.7%

Low chance

Most cornersOlympiakos66.2%OFI Crete23.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.5%

Good chance

Over 24.542.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.6%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Olympiakos18.5 taken8.0 faced
OFI Crete11.5 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.3%2.549.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.3%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Form & head-to-head

OlympiakosWDWWD
OFI CreteLWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Olympiakos 5 · 0 draws · OFI Crete 0 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-14OFI Crete 0-3 Olympiakos
2025-12-06Olympiakos 3-0 OFI Crete
2025-03-09Olympiakos 1-0 OFI Crete
2024-12-01OFI Crete 0-2 Olympiakos
2024-02-10Olympiakos 4-0 OFI Crete

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OlympiakosOFI Crete
League position#4 of 14#6 of 14
Record W-D-L2-1-02-0-1
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 43% · BTTS in 48%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Olympiakos win1.191.49
Draw6.504.67
OFI Crete win11.008.62
Over 2.5 goals1.502.04
Under 2.5 goals2.501.96

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Olympiakos win1.49
Draw4.68
OFI Crete win8.60
Both teams to score2.34

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.04
Over 3.5 goals3.67
Olympiakos most1.49
OFI Crete most8.60

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.55
Over 8.5 corners1.92
Over 9.5 corners2.52
Over 10.5 corners3.47
Olympiakos most1.50
OFI Crete most4.17

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.36
Over 4.5 cards1.78
Over 5.5 cards2.58
Olympiakos most3.52
OFI Crete most1.84

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.03
Over 9.5 SoT2.59
Olympiakos most1.39
OFI Crete most5.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.84
Over 24.5 shots2.33
Over 26.5 shots3.12
Over 28.5 shots4.42
Olympiakos most1.35
OFI Crete most4.71

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.12
Over 22.5 fouls1.23
Over 24.5 fouls1.41
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 54.5% Over 24.5 42.9% Over 26.5 32.1% Over 28.5 22.6%
Most: Olympiakos 74.2% Most: OFI Crete 21.2%
Olympiakos Over 13.2 53.1% OFI Crete Over 13.2 16.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.5% Over 7.5 60.5% Over 8.5 49.3% Over 9.5 38.7%
Most: Olympiakos 71.8% Most: OFI Crete 18.9%
Olympiakos Over 4.2 61.4% OFI Crete Over 4.2 21.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.7% Over 3.5 73.8% Over 4.5 56.3%
Most: Olympiakos 28.4% Most: OFI Crete 54.2%
Olympiakos Over 1.8 62.9% OFI Crete Over 1.8 78.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Olympiakos clean sheet 49.9%
OFI Crete clean sheet 14.3%
Olympiakos win to nil 42.2%
OFI Crete win to nil 6.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 67.0% draw 21.4% away 11.6%
double_chance
1X 88.4% 12 78.6% X2 33.0%
dnb
home 85.2% away 14.8%
btts
yes 42.8% no 57.2%
clean_sheet
home 50.7% away 14.3%
win_to_nil
home 43.0% away 6.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.1% home_by_2 20.8% home_by_3plus 21.1%
away_by_1 8.5% away_by_2 2.5% away_by_3plus 0.6%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 4.4% 0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.4% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 13.5% 1-1 10.0% 1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.7% 1-4 0.1% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 13.6% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 3.2%
2-3 0.7% 2-4 0.1% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 8.9% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 4.4% 4-1 3.0% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.7% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.6%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.3%
under_1.5 25.7% over_2.5 49.0% under_2.5 51.0%
over_3.5 27.2% under_3.5 72.8% over_4.5 12.9%
under_4.5 87.2% over_5.5 5.2% under_5.5 94.8%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 85.7% under_0.5 14.3% over_1.5 58.1%
under_1.5 41.9% over_2.5 31.2% under_2.5 68.8%
team_away
over_0.5 49.3% under_0.5 50.7% over_1.5 14.9%
under_1.5 85.1% over_2.5 3.2% under_2.5 96.8%
most
home 67.0% draw 21.4% away 11.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.1% away_+2.5 78.9% home_-1.5 41.9%
away_+1.5 58.1% home_-0.5 67.0% away_+0.5 33.0%
home_+0.5 88.4% away_-0.5 11.6% home_+1.5 96.9%
away_-1.5 3.2% home_+2.5 99.4% away_-2.5 0.6%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 18.0% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.4% exact_5 7.6%
exact_6 3.4% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.0% draw 41.2% away 14.9%
total
over_0.5 68.3% under_0.5 31.7% over_1.5 31.9%
under_1.5 68.2% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
btts
yes 16.1% no 83.9%
total_exact
exact_0 31.7% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.9%
exact_3 8.0% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.2% draw 35.7% away 11.1%
total
over_0.5 73.3% under_0.5 26.7% over_1.5 38.1%
under_1.5 62.0% over_2.5 14.8% under_2.5 85.2%
btts
yes 16.9% no 83.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 40.6% H/D 2.9% H/A 0.5%
D/H 21.9% D/D 14.7% D/A 4.6%
A/H 2.9% A/D 4.3% A/A 7.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 64.6% under_7.5 35.4% over_8.5 52.0%
under_8.5 48.0% over_9.5 39.7% under_9.5 60.3%
over_10.5 28.8% under_10.5 71.2% over_11.5 19.9%
under_11.5 80.1% over_12.5 13.0% under_12.5 87.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.9% under_3.5 25.2% over_4.5 60.4%
under_4.5 39.6% over_5.5 45.7% under_5.5 54.3%
team_away
over_3.5 43.0% under_3.5 57.0% over_4.5 26.9%
under_4.5 73.2% over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.7%
most
home 66.5% draw 9.6% away 24.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 34.2% away_+3.5 65.8% home_-1.5 55.8%
away_+1.5 44.3% home_-0.5 66.5% away_+0.5 33.5%
home_+0.5 76.0% away_-0.5 24.0% home_+1.5 83.9%
away_-1.5 16.1% home_+3.5 93.9% away_-3.5 6.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 54.5% under_22.5 45.5% over_24.5 42.9%
under_24.5 57.1% over_26.5 32.1% under_26.5 67.9%
over_28.5 22.6% under_28.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.3% under_10.5 25.7% over_12.5 60.3%
under_12.5 39.7% over_14.5 45.9% under_14.5 54.1%
team_away
over_10.5 35.7% under_10.5 64.4% over_12.5 21.4%
under_12.5 78.6% over_14.5 11.8% under_14.5 88.3%
most
home 74.2% draw 4.6% away 21.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 52.0% away_+4.5 48.0% home_-2.5 63.6%
away_+2.5 36.4% home_-0.5 74.2% away_+0.5 25.8%
home_+0.5 78.8% away_-0.5 21.2% home_+2.5 86.4%
away_-2.5 13.6% home_+4.5 91.9% away_-4.5 8.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.5% under_6.5 28.5% over_7.5 60.5%
under_7.5 39.5% over_8.5 49.3% under_8.5 50.7%
over_9.5 38.7% under_9.5 61.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.9% under_3.5 25.1% over_4.5 61.4%
under_4.5 38.6% over_5.5 47.7% under_5.5 52.3%
team_away
over_3.5 36.6% under_3.5 63.4% over_4.5 21.8%
under_4.5 78.2% over_5.5 12.0% under_5.5 88.0%
most
home 71.8% draw 9.3% away 18.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 49.4% away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 71.8%
away_+0.5 28.2% home_+0.5 81.1% away_-0.5 18.9%
home_+2.5 93.2% away_-2.5 6.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.7% under_2.5 12.3% over_3.5 73.8%
under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 56.3% under_4.5 43.7%
over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.9%
under_2.5 64.1%
team_away
over_1.5 78.4% under_1.5 21.6% over_2.5 55.1%
under_2.5 44.9%
most
home 28.4% draw 17.4% away 54.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.0% away_+1.5 85.0% home_-0.5 28.4%
away_+0.5 71.6% home_+0.5 45.8% away_-0.5 54.2%
home_+1.5 63.9% away_-1.5 36.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.5% under_20.5 10.5% over_22.5 81.5%
under_22.5 18.6% over_24.5 70.9% under_24.5 29.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.9% under_9.5 13.1% over_11.5 73.1%
under_11.5 26.9% over_13.5 55.7% under_13.5 44.4%
team_away
over_9.5 83.4% under_9.5 16.6% over_11.5 67.7%
under_11.5 32.3% over_13.5 49.3% under_13.5 50.7%
most
home 51.2% draw 6.5% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.2% away_+3.5 67.9% home_-0.5 51.2%
away_+0.5 48.8% home_+2.5 70.0% away_-2.5 30.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.2% no 79.8%
home
yes 6.7% no 93.3%
away
yes 14.5% no 85.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Olympiakos predictions · OFI Crete predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Super League GreeceOlympiakosOFI CreteTrack record