ChampionshipSwansea vs 
Burnley Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.0% for over 7.5 to 22.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Between the two sides, Swansea are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.6%, with a level count at 10.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.9%
61.0%
45.7%
64.7%
47.6%
32.3%
Corner handicap
| Swansea line | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| -0.5 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.3% | 35.8% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
This season (2026/27)
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Swansea.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Swansea over 4.5 corners sits at 61.0% and Burnley at 47.6%. This season Swansea have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Burnley 4.8.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Swansea vs Burnley?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.4% for Swansea vs Burnley.
Which team will win the corner count in Swansea vs Burnley?
The model rates Swansea to win the corner count at 53.6%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Swansea and Burnley average this season?
Swansea have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Burnley 4.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.