ChampionshipSwansea vs 
Burnley Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 81.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Swansea are favoured at 56.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 1 | 24.7% |
| Swansea by 2 | 17.6% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 14.2% |
| Burnley by 1 | 12.4% |
| Burnley by 2 | 4.6% |
| Burnley by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% |
Goal handicap
| Swansea line | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 14.2% | 85.8% |
| -1.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| -0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +0.5 | 81.5% | 18.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Swansea goals scored per game0.7Swansea goals conceded per game1.2Burnley goals scored per game2.2Burnley goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Swansea or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
48.4%Both Teams to Score47.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Swansea are favoured at 56.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Swansea 0 · 0 draws · Burnley 4 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Swansea vs Burnley?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Swansea vs Burnley at 81.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Swansea vs Burnley?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Swansea at 75.3% and Burnley at 24.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.