Southampton vs Bristol City prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Southampton vs Bristol City: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Championship
Southampton

WWDDW

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK
Bristol City

LDWWW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

80%

Southampton or draw

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.018 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SouthamptonWin probability
57.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Southampton or draw79.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Over 8.5 corners67.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.48

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Southampton, that gap is the story." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Southampton at 57% against Bristol City, Championship, 12 September 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 59%. No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Schedule edge: Bristol City have had 4 more days of rest than Southampton. Form guide over the last six: Southampton W3 D2 L1, Bristol City W4 D1 L1. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 1 wins for Southampton, 1 draws and 2 for Bristol City, averaging 3.2 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.018 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.6%@ 2.15
Draw or Bristol City43.1%@ 2.32
Over 11.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals59.3%@ 1.69
Both teams to score58.0%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners57.0%@ 1.75
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.47
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.11
2-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.16

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Southampton

57.0%-1.9%

Draw

22.7%+0.2%

Bristol City

20.4%+1.8%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.018 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.6%

High probability

Over 2.559.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.557.0%

Good chance

Over 10.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersSouthampton56.3%Bristol City33.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.564.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.2%

Good chance

Over 26.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Southampton16.8 taken15.2 faced
Bristol City11.8 taken14.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.6%2.559.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.018 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

SouthamptonWWDDW
Bristol CityLDWWW

Last 4 meetings: Southampton 1 · 1 draws · Bristol City 2 · 3.3 goals/game.

2026-04-21Southampton 2-2 Bristol City
2025-10-21Bristol City 3-1 Southampton
2024-02-13Bristol City 3-1 Southampton
2023-11-29Southampton 1-0 Bristol City

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SouthamptonBristol City
League position#2 of 24#8 of 24
Record W-D-L3-2-13-1-1
Current streakW1W3
Points per game1.832.00
Record, home vs away3-0-02-1-0
PPG, home vs away3.002.33
Goals scored per game2.331.80
Goals conceded per game1.171.40
Scored, home vs away3.672.33
Conceded, home vs away1.001.33
1st half goals per game1.170.60
2nd half goals per game1.171.20
Corners won per game6.74.4
Cards per game1.71.4
Fouls per game8.811.2
Red cards this season01
Shots per game16.811.6
Shots faced per game15.214.4
Shots on target per game4.54.0
Over 2.5 rate

66.7%80.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:SouthamptonBristol City

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Southampton win1.611.75
Draw4.004.41
Bristol City win4.754.90
Over 2.5 goals1.621.69
Under 2.5 goals2.302.46

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Southampton win1.76
Draw4.41
Bristol City win4.91
Both teams to score1.72

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.71
Southampton most1.76
Bristol City most4.91

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.42
Over 9.5 corners1.69
Over 10.5 corners2.11
Southampton most1.77
Bristol City most2.99

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.89
Over 4.5 cards2.99
Over 5.5 cards5.36
Southampton most3.29
Bristol City most2.04

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.70
Over 8.5 SoT2.16
Over 9.5 SoT2.89
Southampton most1.86
Bristol City most2.96

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.51
Over 28.5 shots3.47
Southampton most1.60
Bristol City most3.16

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.74
Over 22.5 fouls2.41
Over 24.5 fouls3.65
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.6% Over 24.5 52.2% Over 26.5 39.9% Over 28.5 28.8%
Most: Southampton 62.5% Most: Bristol City 31.6%
Southampton Over 13.2 50.3% Bristol City Over 13.2 28.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.2% Over 7.5 58.9% Over 8.5 46.3% Over 9.5 34.6%
Most: Southampton 53.7% Most: Bristol City 33.8%
Southampton Over 4.2 48.1% Bristol City Over 4.2 33.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.3% Over 3.5 52.9% Over 4.5 33.5%
Most: Southampton 30.4% Most: Bristol City 48.9%
Southampton Over 1.8 49.7% Bristol City Over 1.8 63.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Southampton clean sheet 32.7%
Bristol City clean sheet 14.0%
Southampton win to nil 27.5%
Bristol City win to nil 8.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 57.0% draw 22.7% away 20.4%
double_chance
1X 79.6% 12 77.3% X2 43.0%
dnb
home 73.7% away 26.3%
btts
yes 58.0% no 42.0%
clean_sheet
home 33.2% away 14.0%
win_to_nil
home 28.0% away 8.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.8% home_by_2 17.5% home_by_3plus 16.6%
away_by_1 12.6% away_by_2 5.5% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 5.1% 0-1 4.6% 0-2 2.8%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.6% 1-1 10.6% 1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.0% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.9% 3-1 6.5% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.9% 4-1 3.2% 4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.2% 5-1 1.3% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.9% under_0.5 5.1% over_1.5 81.6%
under_1.5 18.4% over_2.5 59.3% under_2.5 40.7%
over_3.5 36.9% under_3.5 63.1% over_4.5 19.7%
under_4.5 80.3% over_5.5 9.2% under_5.5 90.8%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 86.0% under_0.5 14.0% over_1.5 58.5%
under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 31.5% under_2.5 68.5%
team_away
over_0.5 66.8% under_0.5 33.2% over_1.5 30.2%
under_1.5 69.8% over_2.5 10.0% under_2.5 90.0%
most
home 57.0% draw 22.7% away 20.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 16.6% away_+2.5 83.4% home_-1.5 34.2%
away_+1.5 65.9% home_-0.5 57.0% away_+0.5 43.0%
home_+0.5 79.6% away_-0.5 20.4% home_+1.5 92.2%
away_-1.5 7.8% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 5.1% exact_1 13.2% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.2% exact_5 10.6%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.1% draw 36.7% away 17.2%
total
over_0.5 75.0% under_0.5 25.0% over_1.5 40.4%
under_1.5 59.7% over_2.5 16.3% under_2.5 83.7%
btts
yes 22.1% no 77.9%
total_exact
exact_0 25.0% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.1% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.4% draw 32.0% away 21.5%
total
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.6%
under_1.5 47.4% over_2.5 25.9% under_2.5 74.1%
btts
yes 32.1% no 67.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 39.1% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.8%
D/H 17.0% D/D 11.8% D/A 7.9%
A/H 2.9% A/D 4.1% A/A 10.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.3% under_7.5 19.7% over_8.5 70.3%
under_8.5 29.7% over_9.5 59.0% under_9.5 41.0%
over_10.5 47.3% under_10.5 52.7% over_11.5 36.3%
under_11.5 63.7% over_12.5 26.6% under_12.5 73.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.4% under_3.5 20.6% over_4.5 65.6%
under_4.5 34.4% over_5.5 50.8% under_5.5 49.2%
team_away
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 33.3% under_5.5 66.7%
most
home 56.4% draw 10.2% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.4% away_+3.5 73.6% home_-1.5 45.9%
away_+1.5 54.1% home_-0.5 56.4% away_+0.5 43.6%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 75.7%
away_-1.5 24.3% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.6% under_22.5 35.4% over_24.5 52.2%
under_24.5 47.8% over_26.5 39.9% under_26.5 60.1%
over_28.5 28.8% under_28.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.6% under_10.5 25.4% over_12.5 58.6%
under_12.5 41.4% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 54.4% under_10.5 45.6% over_12.5 36.3%
under_12.5 63.7% over_14.5 21.7% under_14.5 78.3%
most
home 62.5% draw 5.9% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 50.0%
away_+2.5 50.0% home_-0.5 62.5% away_+0.5 37.5%
home_+0.5 68.4% away_-0.5 31.6% home_+2.5 78.7%
away_-2.5 21.3% home_+4.5 86.7% away_-4.5 13.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.2% under_6.5 28.8% over_7.5 58.9%
under_7.5 41.1% over_8.5 46.3% under_8.5 53.7%
over_9.5 34.6% under_9.5 65.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.2% under_3.5 34.8% over_4.5 48.1%
under_4.5 51.9% over_5.5 32.6% under_5.5 67.4%
team_away
over_3.5 51.4% under_3.5 48.6% over_4.5 33.7%
under_4.5 66.3% over_5.5 20.1% under_5.5 79.9%
most
home 53.7% draw 12.5% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.2% away_+2.5 70.8% home_-0.5 53.7%
away_+0.5 46.3% home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8%
home_+2.5 85.6% away_-2.5 14.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.3% under_2.5 26.7% over_3.5 52.9%
under_3.5 47.1% over_4.5 33.5% under_4.5 66.5%
over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 49.7% under_1.5 50.3% over_2.5 23.5%
under_2.5 76.5%
team_away
over_1.5 63.1% under_1.5 36.9% over_2.5 36.2%
under_2.5 63.8%
most
home 30.4% draw 20.7% away 48.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.7% away_+1.5 85.3% home_-0.5 30.4%
away_+0.5 69.6% home_+0.5 51.1% away_-0.5 48.9%
home_+1.5 71.2% away_-1.5 28.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 57.3% under_20.5 42.7% over_22.5 41.5%
under_22.5 58.5% over_24.5 27.4% under_24.5 72.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.8% under_9.5 43.2% over_11.5 34.4%
under_11.5 65.6% over_13.5 17.4% under_13.5 82.6%
team_away
over_9.5 67.6% under_9.5 32.4% over_11.5 45.8%
under_11.5 54.2% over_13.5 26.3% under_13.5 73.7%
most
home 37.9% draw 7.9% away 54.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.1% away_+3.5 81.9% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+2.5 61.7% away_-2.5 38.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.0% no 90.0%
home
yes 1.2% no 98.8%
away
yes 8.9% no 91.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Southampton predictions · Bristol City predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

ChampionshipSouthamptonBristol CityTrack record