Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Leverkusen

WLDLW

Sun, 20 Sep 202614:30UK19°C · Clearing
RB Leipzig

LWLWL

Model’s top convictions

87%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Leverkusen or draw

68%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LeverkusenWin probability
50.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals86.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.15
Leverkusen or draw72.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 2.5 goals67.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.48

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Leverkusen, that gap is the story." The model leans Leverkusen at 51% when Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on 20 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 68% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 67%. The run in: Leverkusen arrive W3 D1 L2, RB Leipzig W3 D0 L3. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Leverkusen, 1 draws and 1 for RB Leipzig, averaging 4.6 goals a game. Victor Boniface drives the home shot volume, 1.9 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.3%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners30.1%@ 3.32
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.3%@ 1.66
Over 9.5 corners49.5%@ 2.02
Draw or RB Leipzig49.3%@ 2.03
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.50
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.00
2-2 correct score6.7%@ 14.84

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Leverkusen

50.7%

Draw

21.3%

RB Leipzig

28.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.8%

High probability

Over 2.567.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes67.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersLeverkusen61.6%RB Leipzig28.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.2%

Strong chance

Over 26.550.2%

Good chance

Over 28.538.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Leverkusen17.5 taken15.7 faced
RB Leipzig17.5 taken12.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Leverkusen (2 games)

8.5 / 12.5

RB Leipzig (2 games)

8.0 / 14.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.8%2.567.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.567.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

LeverkusenWLDLW
RB LeipzigLWLWL

Last 5 meetings: Leverkusen 3 · 1 draws · RB Leipzig 1 · 4.6 goals/game.

2026-05-02Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig
2025-12-20RB Leipzig 1-3 Leverkusen
2025-01-25RB Leipzig 2-2 Leverkusen
2024-08-31Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig
2024-01-20RB Leipzig 2-3 Leverkusen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LeverkusenRB Leipzig
League position#7 of 18#8 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-11-0-1
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Victor BonifaceLeverkusen · key player
To score24.0%

@ 4.17

1+ on target57.8%

@ 1.73

2+ shots61.2%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 4.6SoT/90 1.92Goals/90 0.61
Conrad HarderRB Leipzig · key player
To score11.7%

@ 8.55

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots42.1%

@ 2.38

Shots/90 4.49SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.39
Patrik SchickLeverkusen · in form
To score48.0%

@ 2.08

1+ on target67.3%

@ 1.49

2+ shots71.4%

@ 1.40

Shots/90 3.57SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.93
Christopher NkunkuRB Leipzig · in form
To score17.1%

@ 5.85

1+ on target39.8%

@ 2.51

2+ shots27.7%

@ 3.61

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.43
Christian KofaneLeverkusen · in form
To score19.8%

@ 5.05

1+ on target48.1%

@ 2.08

2+ shots50.3%

@ 1.99

Shots/90 3.6SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.47
Assan OuédraogoRB Leipzig · in form
To score15.8%

@ 6.33

1+ on target43.2%

@ 2.31

2+ shots36.0%

@ 2.78

Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Leverkusen win2.02
Draw4.45
RB Leipzig win3.56
Both teams to score1.48

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.15
Over 2.5 goals1.48
Over 3.5 goals2.17
Over 4.5 goals3.66
Leverkusen most2.02
RB Leipzig most3.56

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.97
Over 10.5 corners2.56
Leverkusen most1.62
RB Leipzig most3.53

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.19
Over 5.5 cards5.87
Leverkusen most2.94
RB Leipzig most2.24

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.20
Over 7.5 SoT1.35
Over 8.5 SoT1.59
Over 9.5 SoT1.94
Leverkusen most1.64
RB Leipzig most3.52

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.61
Over 26.5 shots1.99
Over 28.5 shots2.60
Leverkusen most1.53
RB Leipzig most3.40

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.21
Over 22.5 fouls2.99
Over 24.5 fouls4.27
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.3% Over 24.5 62.2% Over 26.5 50.2% Over 28.5 38.5%
Most: Leverkusen 65.2% Most: RB Leipzig 29.4%
Leverkusen Over 13.2 59.4% RB Leipzig Over 13.2 33.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 83.2% Over 7.5 73.9% Over 8.5 63.0% Over 9.5 51.6%
Most: Leverkusen 60.8% Most: RB Leipzig 28.4%
Leverkusen Over 4.2 64.0% RB Leipzig Over 4.2 40.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.5% Over 3.5 50.7% Over 4.5 31.4%
Most: Leverkusen 34.0% Most: RB Leipzig 44.6%
Leverkusen Over 1.8 51.3% RB Leipzig Over 1.8 59.0%

Leverkusen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Victor Boniface 4.6 1.92 0.61 57.8% 61.2% 24.0%
Patrik Schick 3.57 1.59 0.93 67.3% 71.4% 48.0%
Christian Kofane 3.6 1.4 0.47 48.1% 50.3% 19.8%
Martin Terrier 2.19 0.86 0.47 29.1% 21.8% 17.1%
Jonas Hofmann 2.21 0.83 0.28 29.8% 24.3% 11.3%

RB Leipzig: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Conrad Harder 4.49 1.56 0.39 39.3% 42.1% 11.7%
Christopher Nkunku 2.37 1.16 0.43 39.8% 27.7% 17.1%
Assan Ouédraogo 2.5 1.12 0.34 43.2% 36.0% 15.8%
Rômulo 2.55 1.04 0.4 56.9% 61.1% 27.7%
Johan Bakayoko 2.77 0.96 0.21 33.6% 33.1% 8.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Leverkusen clean sheet 22.3%
RB Leipzig clean sheet 13.4%
Leverkusen win to nil 18.8%
RB Leipzig win to nil 9.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.4% draw 22.5% away 28.1%
double_chance
1X 71.9% 12 77.5% X2 50.6%
dnb
home 63.8% away 36.2%
btts
yes 67.4% no 32.7%
clean_sheet
home 22.7% away 13.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.2% away 9.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.6% home_by_2 15.0% home_by_3plus 13.8%
away_by_1 15.1% away_by_2 8.2% away_by_3plus 4.8%
correct_score
0-0 3.5% 0-1 4.1% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 5.7% 1-1 9.5% 1-2 6.7%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.1% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 6.7%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 4.5%
3-3 2.2% 3-4 0.8% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 2.1% 4-1 3.1% 4-2 2.3%
4-3 1.1% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 2.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.5% under_0.5 3.5% over_1.5 86.8%
under_1.5 13.2% over_2.5 67.8% under_2.5 32.3%
over_3.5 46.2% under_3.5 53.8% over_4.5 27.3%
under_4.5 72.7% over_5.5 14.1% under_5.5 85.9%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 86.6% under_0.5 13.4% over_1.5 59.6%
under_1.5 40.4% over_2.5 32.6% under_2.5 67.4%
team_away
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
most
home 49.4% draw 22.5% away 28.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.8% away_+2.5 86.2% home_-1.5 28.8%
away_+1.5 71.2% home_-0.5 49.4% away_+0.5 50.6%
home_+0.5 71.9% away_-0.5 28.1% home_+1.5 87.0%
away_-1.5 13.0% home_+2.5 95.2% away_-2.5 4.8%
total_exact
exact_0 3.5% exact_1 9.7% exact_2 19.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 18.8% exact_5 13.2%
exact_6 7.7% exact_7plus 6.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.0% draw 34.6% away 28.4%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 49.0%
under_1.5 51.0% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
btts
yes 31.3% no 68.8%
total_exact
exact_0 19.3% exact_1 31.7% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 14.4% exact_4plus 8.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.5% draw 32.7% away 22.8%
total
over_0.5 82.3% under_0.5 17.7% over_1.5 51.6%
under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.1% under_2.5 74.9%
btts
yes 31.9% no 68.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.9% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.6%
D/H 15.4% D/D 11.3% D/A 7.9%
A/H 4.0% A/D 6.1% A/A 18.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.3% under_7.5 25.7% over_8.5 62.9%
under_8.5 37.1% over_9.5 50.8% under_9.5 49.2%
over_10.5 39.1% under_10.5 60.9% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_12.5 20.0% under_12.5 80.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.1% under_3.5 21.9% over_4.5 64.1%
under_4.5 35.9% over_5.5 49.2% under_5.5 50.8%
team_away
over_3.5 55.9% under_3.5 44.2% over_4.5 38.4%
under_4.5 61.6% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 61.7% draw 10.0% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.2% away_+3.5 69.8% home_-1.5 50.9%
away_+1.5 49.1% home_-0.5 61.7% away_+0.5 38.3%
home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3% home_+1.5 80.2%
away_-1.5 19.8% home_+3.5 91.9% away_-3.5 8.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.4% under_22.5 26.7% over_24.5 62.2%
under_24.5 37.8% over_26.5 50.2% under_26.5 49.8%
over_28.5 38.5% under_28.5 61.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.9% under_10.5 19.1% over_12.5 67.1%
under_12.5 32.9% over_14.5 51.5% under_14.5 48.5%
team_away
over_10.5 59.3% under_10.5 40.7% over_12.5 41.4%
under_12.5 58.6% over_14.5 26.2% under_14.5 73.8%
most
home 65.2% draw 5.4% away 29.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 53.4%
away_+2.5 46.6% home_-0.5 65.2% away_+0.5 34.8%
home_+0.5 70.6% away_-0.5 29.4% home_+2.5 80.1%
away_-2.5 19.9% home_+4.5 87.5% away_-4.5 12.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 83.2% under_6.5 16.8% over_7.5 73.9%
under_7.5 26.2% over_8.5 63.0% under_8.5 37.0%
over_9.5 51.6% under_9.5 48.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.2% under_3.5 21.8% over_4.5 64.0%
under_4.5 36.0% over_5.5 48.9% under_5.5 51.1%
team_away
over_3.5 58.3% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 40.6%
under_4.5 59.4% over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.1%
most
home 60.8% draw 10.7% away 28.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 37.9% away_+2.5 62.1% home_-0.5 60.8%
away_+0.5 39.2% home_+0.5 71.6% away_-0.5 28.4%
home_+2.5 87.7% away_-2.5 12.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.5% under_2.5 28.5% over_3.5 50.7%
under_3.5 49.3% over_4.5 31.4% under_4.5 68.7%
over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 83.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.3% under_1.5 48.7% over_2.5 24.8%
under_2.5 75.2%
team_away
over_1.5 59.0% under_1.5 41.0% over_2.5 31.9%
under_2.5 68.1%
most
home 34.0% draw 21.4% away 44.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 34.0%
away_+0.5 66.0% home_+0.5 55.4% away_-0.5 44.6%
home_+1.5 75.0% away_-1.5 25.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 45.3% under_20.5 54.7% over_22.5 33.5%
under_22.5 66.6% over_24.5 23.4% under_24.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.6% under_9.5 52.4% over_11.5 30.7%
under_11.5 69.3% over_13.5 18.0% under_13.5 82.0%
team_away
over_9.5 54.9% under_9.5 45.1% over_11.5 37.7%
under_11.5 62.3% over_13.5 23.8% under_13.5 76.3%
most
home 41.6% draw 6.6% away 51.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.9% away_+3.5 76.1% home_-0.5 41.6%
away_+0.5 58.5% home_+2.5 61.2% away_-2.5 38.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 6.1% no 93.9%
home
yes 1.4% no 98.6%
away
yes 4.7% no 95.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Leverkusen predictions · RB Leipzig predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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BundesligaLeverkusenRB LeipzigTrack record