Stoke 2-3 Middlesbrough cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Stoke2-3Middlesbrough
We called Over 3.5 at 51.2% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 89.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards51.2%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 6 |
| Goals | 2.57 | 3.33 |
| Yellow cards | 4.41 | 4.50 |
| Red cards | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Corners | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Fouls | 22.4 | 21.0 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 67% |
| Home wins | 54% | 33% |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Preston vs West Brom | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 2 | 0 | 15 | 18 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Stoke vs Middlesbrough | 2-3 | 5 | Yes | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cardiff vs Charlton | 3-1 | 4 | Yes | 8 | 0 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Swansea vs Wrexham | 0-0 | 0 | No | 3 | 0 | 7 | 23 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Norwich vs Burnley | 4-1 | 5 | Yes | 7 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Preston vs Wolves | 1-3 | 4 | Yes | 5 | 0 | 9 | 21 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Southampton vs Bristol City | 2-2 | 4 | Yes | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Derby vs Stoke | 2-0 | 2 | No | 3 | 0 | 8 | 28 |
| 28 Mar 2026 | Newport County vs ShrewsburyLeague Two | 1-0 | 1 | No | 5 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Notts County vs CheltenhamLeague Two | 5-2 | 7 | Yes | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stoke vs Middlesbrough. It tips Middlesbrough for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who picks up more cards
StokeMiddlesbroughTeam cards lines
Stoke
Middlesbrough
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Stoke's; Middlesbrough gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Stoke line | Stoke | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.5% | 79.5% |
| -0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +0.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| +1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.2% | 73.8% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | R Madley | 2 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Stoke at home and Middlesbrough away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.9% for over 2.5 to 17.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on cards, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.8%, with a level count at 21.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Stoke over 1.5 cards sits at 55.2% and Middlesbrough at 56.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.6% (Stoke 8.8%, Middlesbrough 2.0%). Middlesbrough’s most frequent referee this season, R Madley, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Stoke have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Middlesbrough 1.2.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?
Will there be a red card in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?
Which team will pick up more cards in Stoke vs Middlesbrough?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
