AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Pro League
StandardStandardWLLLL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:45UK
BeverenBeverenWWLLD

Standard vs Beveren cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Standard vs Beveren. It tips Beveren for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.7% 32.3%
3.5 cards 46.3% 53.7%
4.5 cards 27.5% 72.5%
5.5 cards 14.4% 85.6%

Who picks up more cards

Standard
25.7%
Level
21.0%
Beveren
53.4%

Team cards lines

Standard

Over 1.5
40.9%
Over 2.5
16.8%

Beveren

Over 1.5
61.7%
Over 2.5
34.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Standard's; Beveren gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Standard line Standard Beveren
-1.5 11.3% 88.7%
-0.5 25.7% 74.3%
+0.5 46.6% 53.4%
+1.5 68.0% 32.0%

Red card

Any red card25.8%
Standard red card13.7%
Beveren red card14.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 52.9% 47.1%
22.5 fouls 38.1% 61.9%
24.5 fouls 25.3% 74.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Beveren M. Allaerts 2 3.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

StandardStandard

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Standard at home and Beveren away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BeverenBeveren
Statistic
Standard
Beveren
Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.0

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,300 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.7% for over 2.5 to 14.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. Between the two sides, Beveren are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.4%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Standard over 1.5 cards sits at 40.9% and Beveren at 61.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.8% (Standard 13.7%, Beveren 14.1%). Beveren’s most frequent referee this season, M. Allaerts, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

46.3%Over 3.5 cards
25.8%Any red card
53.4%Most cards: Beveren
40.9%Standard over 1.5 cards
61.7%Beveren over 1.5 cards
38.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherM. Allaerts, Beveren’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 25.8%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianBeveren are the pick to collect more cards at 53.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
StandardStandard

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BeverenBeveren
Statistic
Standard
Beveren
fouls per game
10.1
8.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Standard vs Beveren?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.3% for Standard vs Beveren.
Will there be a red card in Standard vs Beveren?
The model rates a red card for either side at 25.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Standard vs Beveren?
The model rates Beveren to pick up more cards at 53.4%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueStandard fixtures and statsBeveren fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.