AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Pro League
St TruidenSt TruidenWLLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:00UK
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-HeverleeLDWDD

Sint-Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined61.6%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined38.4%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots61.6%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for St Truiden.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Model expects Shots On target
St Truiden 14.7 5.0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven 12.0 3.7
Both teams 26.7 8.7

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 72.6% 27.4%
24.5 shots 61.6% 38.4%
26.5 shots 50.0% 50.0%
28.5 shots 38.5% 61.5%

Who takes more shots

St Truiden
63.5%
Level
5.4%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
31.1%

Team shots lines

St Truiden

Over 10.5
79.5%
Over 12.5
65.6%
Over 14.5
50.4%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 10.5
59.7%
Over 12.5
42.4%
Over 14.5
27.5%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 73.7% 26.3%
7.5 shots on target 62.0% 38.0%
8.5 shots on target 49.7% 50.3%
9.5 shots on target 38.0% 62.1%

Who has more on target

St Truiden
58.9%
Level
11.7%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
29.3%

Team shots on target lines

St Truiden

Over 3.5
70.0%
Over 4.5
53.8%
Over 5.5
38.3%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 3.5
49.8%
Over 4.5
32.2%
Over 5.5
19.0%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St Truiden's; Oud-Heverlee Leuven gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St Truiden line St Truiden Oud-Heverlee Leuven
-4.5 40.2% 59.8%
-2.5 51.9% 48.1%
-0.5 63.5% 36.5%
+0.5 68.9% 31.1%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: St Truiden in their home matches and Oud-Heverlee Leuven in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only St Truiden's home matches and Oud-Heverlee Leuven's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: St Truiden's last six home league matches and Oud-Heverlee Leuven's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

St TruidenSt Truiden

Recorded 2026/27

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee
This season
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Shots per game
17.3
13.3

Shots faced per game
14.0
15.4

Shots on target per game
4.6
2.5

On target faced per game
5.0
4.6

Matches with more shots
50.0%
37.5%

Matches
8
8
St Truiden at home, Oud-Heverlee Leuven away
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Shots per game
19.5
12.0

Shots faced per game
12.3
17.5

Shots on target per game
4.0
2.5

On target faced per game
4.3
5.0

Matches
4
4
By half, this season
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
1st-half shots
7.3
7.0

2nd-half shots
10.0
6.3

1st-half shots faced
6.8
6.1

2nd-half shots faced
7.3
9.3

1st-half shots on target
1.6
1.3

2nd-half shots on target
3.0
1.3

1st-half on target faced
2.0
1.8

2nd-half on target faced
3.0
2.9

Matches
8
8
By half, at home and away
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
1st-half shots
8.0
5.5

2nd-half shots
11.5
6.5

1st-half shots faced
6.3
6.8

2nd-half shots faced
6.0
10.8

1st-half shots on target
1.5
1.3

2nd-half shots on target
2.5
1.3

1st-half on target faced
1.8
1.5

2nd-half on target faced
2.5
3.5

Matches
4
4
Last six league matches
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Shots per game
13.7
13.0

Shots faced per game
11.8
13.2

Shots on target per game
3.7
3.2

On target faced per game
4.5
3.2

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Shots per game
17.5
11.8

Shots faced per game
11.3
17.7

Shots on target per game
3.8
2.3

On target faced per game
3.2
5.2

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 28.2 shots, 9.0 on target, 12.7 in the 1st half, 15.5 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0367Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✗ 50.1%✓ 53.8%✗ 51.6%✗ 52.8%✗ 55.8%✗ 57.3%✗ 54.2%✗ 55.6%✗ 55.0%
1 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 24.5 54.7%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Over 24.5 50.1%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 24.5 53.8%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 24.5 51.6%Miss
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 24.5 52.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 61.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.6% for over 22.5 to 38.5% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. On the shot count, St Truiden are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.5%, with a level count at 5.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, St Truiden over 12.5 shots sits at 65.6% and Oud-Heverlee Leuven at 42.4%. This season St Truiden have averaged 17.3 shots a game and Oud-Heverlee Leuven 13.3. St Truiden take 7.3 shots before half-time and 10.0 after, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7.0 and 6.3.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

61.6%Over 24.5 shots
63.5%Most shots: St Truiden
65.6%St Truiden over 12.5 shots
42.4%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 12.5 shots
62.0%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.6% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderSt Truiden are the pick to have more shots at 63.5%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherSt Truiden average 7.3 shots in the first half and 10.0 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 50.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model expects about 14.7 shots for St Truiden and 12.0 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven, 26.7 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 61.6%.
How many shots on target in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model expects about 5.0 shots on target for St Truiden and 3.7 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 62.0%.
Which team will have more shots in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model rates St Truiden to take more shots at 63.5%.
How many shots do Oud-Heverlee Leuven take away from home?
Oud-Heverlee Leuven have taken 12.0 shots per game and faced 17.5 across 4 recorded away league matches this season.
Do St Truiden shoot more in the first or second half?
St Truiden average 7.3 shots before half-time and 10.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueSint-Truiden fixtures and statsOud-Heverlee Leuven fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.