AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Championship
SouthamptonSouthamptonLWWDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
QPRQPRDDWLW

Southampton vs QPR cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Southampton vs QPR. It tips QPR for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.6% 24.4%
3.5 cards 55.8% 44.2%
4.5 cards 36.3% 63.7%
5.5 cards 20.8% 79.2%

Who picks up more cards

Southampton
27.7%
Level
19.9%
QPR
52.4%

Team cards lines

Southampton

Over 1.5
49.3%
Over 2.5
23.2%

QPR

Over 1.5
67.0%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Southampton's; QPR gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Southampton line Southampton QPR
-1.5 13.2% 86.8%
-0.5 27.7% 72.3%
+0.5 47.6% 52.4%
+1.5 67.8% 32.2%

Red card

Any red card8.1%
Southampton red card2.1%
QPR red card6.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.2% 45.8%
22.5 fouls 38.4% 61.6%
24.5 fouls 24.8% 75.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Southampton A Herczeg 2 5.0 3.0
Southampton M Donohue 2 7.5 2.5
Southampton S Martin 2 6.5 2.5
QPR R Ricardo 2 5.5 4.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SouthamptonSouthampton

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Southampton at home and QPR away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

QPRQPR
Statistic
Southampton
QPR
Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.3

Matches with card data
5
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.6% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. On the card count, QPR are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 19.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Southampton over 1.5 cards sits at 49.3% and QPR at 67.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.1% (Southampton 2.1%, QPR 6.1%). Southampton’s most frequent referee this season, A Herczeg, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

55.8%Over 3.5 cards
8.1%Any red card
52.4%Most cards: QPR
49.3%Southampton over 1.5 cards
67.0%QPR over 1.5 cards
38.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA Herczeg, Southampton’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianQPR are the pick to collect more cards at 52.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
SouthamptonSouthampton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

QPRQPR
Statistic
Southampton
QPR
fouls per game
8.4
8.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Southampton vs QPR?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Southampton vs QPR.
Will there be a red card in Southampton vs QPR?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Southampton vs QPR?
The model rates QPR to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.