AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
SochauxSochauxDWDDL
Full time1-3Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:00UK
AnnecyAnnecyWLLWL

Sochaux 1-3 Annecy cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48%

Result

Sochaux1-3Annecy
2 yellow cardsSochaux 2, Annecy 0
0 red cardsSochaux 0, Annecy 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 52.0% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 87.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Faouzi Benchabane

Recorded match referee.

Faouzi Benchabane in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 21 5
Goals 2.57 2.20
Yellow cards 3.81 4.00
Red cards 0.10 0.00
Corners 9.3 10.2
Fouls 29.3 27.0
Both teams scored 57% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 43% 60%
Home wins 29% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Sochaux vs Annecy 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 18 19
10 Oct 2026 Nantes vs Reims 0-0 0 No 4 0 13 25
12 Sep 2026 Dunkerque vs St Etienne 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 6 35
28 Aug 2026 Rodez vs Pau FC 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 8 29
14 Aug 2026 Grenoble vs Metz 0-0 0 No 4 0 6 27
9 May 2026 Reims vs Pau FC 5-3 8 Yes 2 0 7 16
24 Apr 2026 Laval vs Rodez 0-0 0 No 3 0 8 26
18 Apr 2026 Troyes vs Boulogne 1-0 1 No 2 0 9 31
3 Apr 2026 Annecy vs Guingamp 1-0 1 No 5 1 11 24
13 Mar 2026 Clermont vs Pau FC 0-1 1 No 4 0 5 35

Faouzi Benchabane referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sochaux vs Annecy. The model leans toward Annecy for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.3% 30.7%
3.5 cards 48.0% 52.0%
4.5 cards 28.9% 71.1%
5.5 cards 15.3% 84.7%

Who picks up more cards

Sochaux
27.0%
Level
21.0%
Annecy
52.0%

Team cards lines

Sochaux

Over 1.5
43.4%
Over 2.5
18.5%

Annecy

Over 1.5
62.1%
Over 2.5
35.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sochaux's; Annecy gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sochaux line Sochaux Annecy
-1.5 12.1% 87.9%
-0.5 27.0% 73.1%
+0.5 48.0% 52.0%
+1.5 69.1% 30.9%

Red card

Any red card12.7%
Sochaux red card7.5%
Annecy red card5.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.5% 9.5%
22.5 fouls 82.3% 17.7%
24.5 fouls 71.2% 28.8%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.3% for over 2.5 to 15.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.0%. Between the two sides, Annecy are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.0%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sochaux over 1.5 cards sits at 43.4% and Annecy at 62.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.7% (Sochaux 7.5%, Annecy 5.7%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.0%Over 3.5 cards
12.7%Any red card
52.0%Most cards: Annecy
43.4%Sochaux over 1.5 cards
62.1%Annecy over 1.5 cards
82.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianAnnecy are the pick to collect more cards at 52.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 48.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Sochaux vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.0% for Sochaux vs Annecy.
Will there be a red card in Sochaux vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sochaux vs Annecy?
Before kickoff, the model rated Annecy to pick up more cards at 52.0%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Sochaux fixtures and statsAnnecy fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.