AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
ShrewsburyShrewsburyLWDDW
Full time0-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
ExeterExeterDLDLW

Shrewsbury 0-1 Exeter cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.8%

Result

Shrewsbury0-1Exeter
6 yellow cardsShrewsbury 4, Exeter 2
0 red cardsShrewsbury 0, Exeter 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.2% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 96.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Declan Brown

Recorded match referee.

Declan Brown in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 3
Goals 2.22 Not available
Yellow cards 3.78 Not available
Red cards 0.33 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 20.8 Not available
Both teams scored 67% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 33% Not available
Home wins 22% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 York vs Accrington 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 13 24
10 Oct 2026 Shrewsbury vs Exeter 0-1 1 No 6 0 10 26
22 Aug 2026 Port Vale vs Tranmere 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 7 36
18 Apr 2026 Swindon vs Accrington 2-2 4 Yes 1 0 11 13
28 Feb 2026 Notts County vs Grimsby 0-1 1 No 6 1 13 24
17 Feb 2026 Cambridge vs Colchester 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 20
24 Jan 2026 Newport County vs Chesterfield 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 10 15
29 Dec 2025 Accrington vs Harrogate 1-0 1 No 1 1 11 19
25 Oct 2025 Barrow vs Barnet 2-2 4 Yes 3 1 11 10

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Shrewsbury vs Exeter. Slightly more cards are projected for Shrewsbury for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.7% 27.3%
3.5 cards 52.2% 47.8%
4.5 cards 32.8% 67.2%
5.5 cards 18.1% 81.9%

Who picks up more cards

Shrewsbury
40.8%
Level
21.3%
Exeter
37.8%

Team cards lines

Shrewsbury

Over 1.5
57.4%
Over 2.5
30.3%

Exeter

Over 1.5
55.2%
Over 2.5
28.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Shrewsbury's; Exeter gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Shrewsbury line Shrewsbury Exeter
-1.5 22.2% 77.8%
-0.5 40.8% 59.2%
+0.5 62.2% 37.8%
+1.5 80.1% 20.0%

Red card

Any red card3.7%
Shrewsbury red card1.4%
Exeter red card2.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.3% 26.7%
22.5 fouls 59.0% 41.0%
24.5 fouls 43.8% 56.2%
ShrewsburyShrewsbury

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Shrewsbury at home and Exeter away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ExeterExeter
Statistic
Shrewsbury
Exeter
Cards per game at this venue
1.5
1.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
0.3
1.8

Yellow cards per game
3.0
1.7

Red cards this season
0
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.7% for over 2.5 to 18.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. On the card count, Shrewsbury are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards sits at 57.4% and Exeter at 55.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.7% (Shrewsbury 1.4%, Exeter 2.3%). This season Shrewsbury have averaged 3.0 cards a game and Exeter 1.7.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

52.2%Over 3.5 cards
3.7%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Shrewsbury
57.4%Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards
55.2%Exeter over 1.5 cards
59.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 3.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianShrewsbury are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ShrewsburyShrewsbury

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ExeterExeter
Statistic
Shrewsbury
Exeter
cards per game
3.0
1.7

fouls per game
15.0
11.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Shrewsbury vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.2% for Shrewsbury vs Exeter.
Will there be a red card in Shrewsbury vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 3.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Shrewsbury vs Exeter?
Before kickoff, the model rated Shrewsbury to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoShrewsbury fixtures and statsExeter fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.