AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
RotherhamRotherhamDLLLD
Full time3-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
ShrewsburyShrewsburyDWLWW

Rotherham 3-3 Shrewsbury cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined58.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined41.8%

Result

Rotherham3-3Shrewsbury
1 yellow cardsRotherham 1, Shrewsbury 0
2 red cardsRotherham 1, Shrewsbury 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 58.3% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 83.7% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards58.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

James Oldham

Recorded match referee.

James Oldham in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 65 2
Goals 2.29 Not available
Yellow cards 3.51 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 9.8 Not available
Fouls 26.4 Not available
Both teams scored 42% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 42% Not available
Home wins 43% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Rotherham vs Shrewsbury 3-3 6 Yes 1 2 12 26
19 Sep 2026 Walsall vs Port Vale 2-0 2 No 6 0 11 32
6 Apr 2026 Cheltenham vs Cambridge 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 9 24
21 Feb 2026 Gillingham vs Oldham 0-3 3 No 4 0 12 28
7 Feb 2026 Colchester vs Shrewsbury 2-0 2 No 6 0 2 30
24 Jan 2026 Bromley vs Swindon 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 12 16
13 Dec 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Cambridge 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 11 24
4 Oct 2025 Bromley vs Tranmere 3-3 6 Yes 5 1 10 27
23 Aug 2025 Walsall vs Salford 1-0 1 No 3 0 7 21
19 Aug 2025 Bristol Rvs vs Oldham 0-0 0 No 5 0 5 30

James Oldham referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rotherham vs Shrewsbury. The model leans toward Shrewsbury for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 77.4% 22.6%
3.5 cards 58.3% 41.8%
4.5 cards 38.7% 61.3%
5.5 cards 22.8% 77.2%

Who picks up more cards

Rotherham
29.1%
Level
19.8%
Shrewsbury
51.1%

Team cards lines

Rotherham

Over 1.5
52.2%
Over 2.5
25.6%

Shrewsbury

Over 1.5
67.7%
Over 2.5
41.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rotherham's; Shrewsbury gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rotherham line Rotherham Shrewsbury
-1.5 14.3% 85.7%
-0.5 29.1% 70.9%
+0.5 48.9% 51.1%
+1.5 68.6% 31.4%

Red card

Any red card16.4%
Rotherham red card1.4%
Shrewsbury red card15.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 72.6% 27.4%
22.5 fouls 58.1% 41.9%
24.5 fouls 42.9% 57.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 58.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.4% for over 2.5 to 22.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.3%. Head to head on cards, Shrewsbury are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Rotherham over 1.5 cards sits at 52.2% and Shrewsbury at 67.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.4% (Rotherham 1.4%, Shrewsbury 15.2%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

58.3%Over 3.5 cards
16.4%Any red card
51.1%Most cards: Shrewsbury
52.2%Rotherham over 1.5 cards
67.7%Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards
58.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 58.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianShrewsbury are the pick to collect more cards at 51.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 58.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Rotherham vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 58.3% for Rotherham vs Shrewsbury.
Will there be a red card in Rotherham vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rotherham vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated Shrewsbury to pick up more cards at 51.1%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoRotherham fixtures and statsShrewsbury fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.