AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
RotherhamRotherhamDWDLL
Full time2-2Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
Newport CountyNewport CountyDDWDW

Rotherham 2-2 Newport County cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.9%

Result

Rotherham2-2Newport County
4 yellow cardsRotherham 3, Newport County 1
0 red cardsRotherham 0, Newport County 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.1% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 86.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rotherham vs Newport County. Slightly more cards are projected for Newport County for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.3% 25.7%
3.5 cards 54.1% 45.9%
4.5 cards 34.6% 65.4%
5.5 cards 19.5% 80.5%

Who picks up more cards

Rotherham
37.9%
Level
21.1%
Newport County
41.0%

Team cards lines

Rotherham

Over 1.5
56.5%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Newport County

Over 1.5
58.8%
Over 2.5
31.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rotherham's; Newport County gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rotherham line Rotherham Newport County
-1.5 20.2% 79.8%
-0.5 37.9% 62.1%
+0.5 59.0% 41.0%
+1.5 77.4% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card13.8%
Rotherham red card2.3%
Newport County red card11.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.9% 28.1%
22.5 fouls 57.3% 42.7%
24.5 fouls 42.1% 57.9%
RotherhamRotherham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Rotherham at home and Newport County away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Newport CountyNewport County
Statistic
Rotherham
Newport County
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.7

Matches with card data
3
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.3% for over 2.5 to 19.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.1%. Head to head on cards, Newport County are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 21.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Rotherham over 1.5 cards sits at 56.5% and Newport County at 58.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.8% (Rotherham 2.3%, Newport County 11.7%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

54.1%Over 3.5 cards
13.8%Any red card
41.0%Most cards: Newport County
56.5%Rotherham over 1.5 cards
58.8%Newport County over 1.5 cards
57.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNewport County are the pick to collect more cards at 41.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.1% for Rotherham vs Newport County.
Will there be a red card in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rotherham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated Newport County to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoRotherham fixtures and statsNewport County fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.