AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Serie A
RomaRomaWDDWD
Full time4-2Tue, 27 Oct 202627/1019:45UK
CagliariCagliariWWDLL

Roma 4-2 Cagliari cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.8%

Result

Roma4-2Cagliari

Settled, final score 4-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Roma vs Cagliari. Slightly more cards are projected for Cagliari for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.4% 31.7%
3.5 cards 47.8% 52.2%
4.5 cards 29.6% 70.4%
5.5 cards 16.4% 83.6%

Who picks up more cards

Roma
31.6%
Level
21.1%
Cagliari
47.3%

Team cards lines

Roma

Over 1.5
46.5%
Over 2.5
21.9%

Cagliari

Over 1.5
58.1%
Over 2.5
32.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Roma's; Cagliari gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Roma line Roma Cagliari
-1.5 15.6% 84.4%
-0.5 31.6% 68.4%
+0.5 52.7% 47.3%
+1.5 72.4% 27.6%

Red card

Any red card15.3%
Roma red card7.8%
Cagliari red card8.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.4% 25.6%
22.5 fouls 62.4% 37.6%
24.5 fouls 49.6% 50.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Roma Andrea Colombo 2 4.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

RomaRoma

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Roma at home and Cagliari away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Roma
Cagliari
Cards per game at this venue
1.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.7
·

Yellow cards per game
2.1
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
40.0%
66.7%

Matches with card data
5
6
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 68.4% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.8%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Roma over 1.5 cards sits at 46.5% and Cagliari at 58.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.3% (Roma 7.8%, Cagliari 8.1%). Roma’s most frequent referee this season, Andrea Colombo, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Roma have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Cagliari 1.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

47.8%Over 3.5 cards
15.3%Any red card
47.3%Most cards: Cagliari
46.5%Roma over 1.5 cards
58.1%Cagliari over 1.5 cards
62.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAndrea Colombo, Roma’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCagliari are the pick to collect more cards at 47.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
RomaRoma

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CagliariCagliari
Statistic
Roma
Cagliari
cards per game
2.6
1.7

fouls per game
11.9
12.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Roma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.8% for Roma vs Cagliari.
Will there be a red card in Roma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Roma vs Cagliari?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cagliari to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Serie ARoma fixtures and statsCagliari fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.