AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
RochdaleRochdaleWWDLD
Full time0-5Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
AccringtonAccringtonDWDWD

Rochdale 0-5 Accrington cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.8%

Result

Rochdale0-5Accrington
5 yellow cardsRochdale 1, Accrington 4
0 red cardsRochdale 0, Accrington 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.3% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 75.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Richie Watkins

Recorded match referee.

Richie Watkins in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 1
Goals 3.10 Not available
Yellow cards 3.40 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 9.6 Not available
Fouls 21.4 Not available
Both teams scored 70% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 60% Not available
Home wins 30% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Rochdale vs Accrington 0-5 5 No 5 0 6 21
11 Apr 2026 Accrington vs Fleetwood Town 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 12 25
19 Dec 2025 Cambridge vs Accrington 2-0 2 No 1 0 13 18
22 Nov 2025 Tranmere vs Milton Keynes Dons 2-2 4 Yes 3 1 9 21
26 Apr 2025 Harrogate vs Notts County 1-3 4 Yes 0 0 11 25
19 Oct 2024 Carlisle vs Harrogate 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 3 16
24 Aug 2024 Chesterfield vs Salford 1-1 2 Yes 7 1 10 27
29 Mar 2024 Bradford vs Tranmere 2-0 2 No 5 0 14 23
6 Jan 2024 Swindon vs Colchester 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 7 17
9 Dec 2023 Grimsby vs Crewe 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 11 21

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rochdale vs Accrington. The model leans toward Accrington for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.8% 27.2%
3.5 cards 52.3% 47.8%
4.5 cards 32.8% 67.2%
5.5 cards 18.2% 81.8%

Who picks up more cards

Rochdale
29.4%
Level
20.7%
Accrington
49.9%

Team cards lines

Rochdale

Over 1.5
48.4%
Over 2.5
22.4%

Accrington

Over 1.5
63.3%
Over 2.5
36.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rochdale's; Accrington gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rochdale line Rochdale Accrington
-1.5 14.1% 86.0%
-0.5 29.4% 70.6%
+0.5 50.1% 49.9%
+1.5 70.4% 29.6%

Red card

Any red card24.4%
Rochdale red card15.0%
Accrington red card11.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.6% 33.4%
22.5 fouls 51.2% 48.8%
24.5 fouls 36.1% 63.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.8% for over 2.5 to 18.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Between the two sides, Accrington are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 20.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Rochdale over 1.5 cards sits at 48.4% and Accrington at 63.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.4% (Rochdale 15.0%, Accrington 11.1%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

52.3%Over 3.5 cards
24.4%Any red card
49.9%Most cards: Accrington
48.4%Rochdale over 1.5 cards
63.3%Accrington over 1.5 cards
51.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.4%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianAccrington are the pick to collect more cards at 49.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Rochdale vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.3% for Rochdale vs Accrington.
Will there be a red card in Rochdale vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rochdale vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated Accrington to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoRochdale fixtures and statsAccrington fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.