AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
Red StarRed StarWWWLL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1119:45UK
NancyNancyLWWWW

Red Star vs Nancy cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Red Star vs Nancy. It tips Red Star for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.9% 25.1%
3.5 cards 55.0% 45.0%
4.5 cards 35.5% 64.5%
5.5 cards 20.2% 79.8%

Who picks up more cards

Red Star
42.2%
Level
20.9%
Nancy
36.9%

Team cards lines

Red Star

Over 1.5
60.1%
Over 2.5
33.0%

Nancy

Over 1.5
56.3%
Over 2.5
29.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Red Star's; Nancy gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Red Star line Red Star Nancy
-1.5 23.6% 76.4%
-0.5 42.2% 57.8%
+0.5 63.1% 36.9%
+1.5 80.5% 19.5%

Red card

Any red card23.6%
Red Star red card10.7%
Nancy red card14.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.7% 6.3%
22.5 fouls 87.6% 12.4%
24.5 fouls 78.5% 21.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Nancy Azzedine Souifi 2 4.5 2.0
Nancy R. Landry 2 6.0 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Red StarRed Star

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Red Star at home and Nancy away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NancyNancy
Statistic
Red Star
Nancy
Yellow cards per game
2.8
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.9
1.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
33.3%

Matches with card data
5
6
Red cards this season
·
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.9% for over 2.5 to 20.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. Between the two sides, Red Star are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 20.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Red Star over 1.5 cards sits at 60.1% and Nancy at 56.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.6% (Red Star 10.7%, Nancy 14.5%). Nancy’s most frequent referee this season, Azzedine Souifi, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.0%Over 3.5 cards
23.6%Any red card
42.2%Most cards: Red Star
60.1%Red Star over 1.5 cards
56.3%Nancy over 1.5 cards
87.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAzzedine Souifi, Nancy’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 23.6%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianRed Star are the pick to collect more cards at 42.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Red StarRed Star

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NancyNancy
Statistic
Red Star
Nancy
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
17.4
14.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Red Star vs Nancy?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.0% for Red Star vs Nancy.
Will there be a red card in Red Star vs Nancy?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Red Star vs Nancy?
The model rates Red Star to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 2Red Star fixtures and statsNancy fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.