La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Sociedad Shots
Result
Settled, final score 4-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.9% for over 22.5 to 29.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Between the two sides, Real Madrid are the model’s pick to have more shots at 72.1%, with a level count at 5.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.3% | 58.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.9% | 70.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.3%
66.1%
50.3%
47.2%
29.6%
16.6%
Shot handicap
| Real Madrid line | Real Madrid | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| -2.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| -0.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| +0.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.8% | 54.2% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Real Madrid.
In-depth analysis
53.6%Over 24.5 shots66.1%Real Madrid over 12.5 shots29.6%Sociedad over 12.5 shots69.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Real Madrid over 12.5 shots sits at 66.1% and Sociedad at 29.6%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 53.6% for Real Madrid vs Sociedad.
Which team will have more shots in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
Before kickoff, the model rated Real Madrid to take more shots at 72.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.