La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Sociedad Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 65.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 82.2% for over 2.5 to 30.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.8%. Head to head on cards, Sociedad are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.6%, with a level count at 18.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.1% | 69.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.6%
31.0%
71.8%
46.9%
Card handicap
| Real Madrid line | Real Madrid | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 30.0% | 70.1% |
| +0.5 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| +1.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 52.7% | 47.3% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Real Madrid vs Sociedad. Slightly more cards are projected for Sociedad for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
65.4%Over 3.5 cards24.5%Any red card57.6%Real Madrid over 1.5 cards71.8%Sociedad over 1.5 cards66.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Real Madrid over 1.5 cards sits at 57.6% and Sociedad at 71.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.5% (Real Madrid 12.9%, Sociedad 13.3%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 65.4% for Real Madrid vs Sociedad.
Will there be a red card in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sociedad to pick up more cards at 51.6%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.