Real Madrid vs Sociedad prediction & probabilities (2026-08-26)

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Real Madrid vs Sociedad: model prediction

La Liga
Real Madrid

WLWWW

Wed, 26 Aug 202610:00UK
Sociedad

LDDLD

Model’s top convictions

90%

Real Madrid or draw

85%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 2.5 goals

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Real MadridWin probability
72.8%
Top 3 convictions

Real Madrid or draw90.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.11
Over 1.5 goals84.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Over 2.5 goals64.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Real Madrid carry a 73% win probability against Sociedad on 26 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 55%. • For shots markets, Kylian Mbappe-Lottin is the obvious watch at 2.4 on target per 90 in recent data. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Real Madrid, 0 draws and 0 for Sociedad, averaging 2.6 goals a game. The run in: Real Madrid arrive W4 D1 L1, Sociedad W0 D4 L2. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.3%@ 2.61
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.5%@ 1.68
Both teams to score55.3%@ 1.81
Over 9.5 corners48.6%@ 2.06
Random finds

2-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.71
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.40
1-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.66

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Real Madrid

72.8%

Draw

17.2%

Sociedad

10.0%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.5%

High probability

Over 2.564.0%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes55.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.5%

Good chance

Over 9.548.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersReal Madrid 60.6% · Sociedad 29.0%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.5%2.564.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.564.0%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

Real MadridWLWWW
SociedadLDDLD

Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 5 · 0 draws · Sociedad 0 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-02-14Real Madrid 4-1 Sociedad
2025-09-13Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid
2025-05-24Real Madrid 2-0 Sociedad
2024-09-14Sociedad 0-2 Real Madrid
2024-04-26Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Real MadridSociedad
League position#2 of 20#10 of 20
Record W-D-L27-5-611-13-14
Current streakW3D1
Points per game2.261.21
Record, home vs away16-1-23-8-8
PPG, home vs away2.580.89
Goals scored per game2.031.55
Goals conceded per game0.921.61
Scored, home vs away2.371.16
Conceded, home vs away0.841.58
1st half goals per game0.870.66
2nd half goals per game1.160.89
Corners won per game6.35.6
Cards per game2.02.4
Fouls per game10.014.2
Red cards this season74
Shots on target per game6.74.6
xG for per game2.141.57
xG against per game1.181.59
Over 2.5 rate

55.3%57.9%

BTTS rate

55.3%78.9%

Clean sheets

36.8%7.9%

Rates this season:Real MadridSociedad

League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Kylian Mbappe-LottinReal Madrid · key player
To score57.9%

@ 1.73

1+ on target89.4%

@ 1.12

2+ shots94.9%

@ 1.05

Shots/90 4.97SoT/90 2.36Goals/90 0.91
Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid · in form
To score33.4%

@ 2.99

1+ on target66.0%

@ 1.52

2+ shots75.8%

@ 1.32

Shots/90 3.17SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.47
RodrygoReal Madrid · in form
To score13.2%

@ 7.58

1+ on target46.8%

@ 2.14

2+ shots49.3%

@ 2.03

Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.24

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Real Madrid win1.46
Draw5.42
Sociedad win7.78
Both teams to score1.81

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.56
Over 3.5 goals2.39
Over 4.5 goals4.22
Real Madrid most1.46
Sociedad most7.78

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.01
Over 10.5 corners2.63
Real Madrid most1.65
Sociedad most3.44

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.56
Over 4.5 cards2.20
Over 5.5 cards3.44
Real Madrid most3.33
Sociedad most1.95

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.67
Over 9.5 SoT2.09
Real Madrid most1.35
Sociedad most5.90

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.46
Over 24.5 shots1.78
Over 26.5 shots2.29
Over 28.5 shots3.13
Real Madrid most1.36
Sociedad most4.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27
Over 22.5 fouls1.50
Over 24.5 fouls1.88
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.6% Over 7.5 71.4% Over 8.5 59.8% Over 9.5 47.8%
Most: Real Madrid 73.9% Most: Sociedad 17.0%
Real Madrid Over 4.2 70.1% Sociedad Over 4.2 27.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.3% Over 3.5 64.2% Over 4.5 45.5%
Most: Real Madrid 30.0% Most: Sociedad 51.4%
Real Madrid Over 1.8 56.6% Sociedad Over 1.8 70.9%

Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 4.97 2.36 0.91 89.4% 94.9% 57.9%
Vinícius Júnior 3.17 1.25 0.47 66.0% 75.8% 33.4%
Rodrygo 2.81 1.07 0.24 46.8% 49.3% 13.2%
Jude Bellingham 2.29 0.99 0.3 56.3% 57.1% 22.2%
Arda Güler 2.38 0.95 0.19 43.8% 42.3% 10.9%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 68.7% draw 18.5% away 12.9%
double_chance
1X 87.2% 12 81.5% X2 31.3%
dnb
home 84.2% away 15.8%
btts
yes 55.3% no 44.7%
clean_sheet
home 39.3% away 9.5%
win_to_nil
home 35.2% away 5.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.2% home_by_2 20.3% home_by_3plus 26.2%
away_by_1 8.6% away_by_2 3.2% away_by_3plus 1.1%
correct_score
0-0 4.1% 0-1 3.1% 0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 8.3% 1-1 8.6% 1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.2% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.3% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 8.1% 3-1 7.6% 3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 4.8% 4-1 4.5% 4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.3% 5-1 2.1% 5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.4%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 10.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.9% under_0.5 4.1% over_1.5 84.5%
under_1.5 15.5% over_2.5 64.0% under_2.5 36.0%
over_3.5 41.9% under_3.5 58.1% over_4.5 23.7%
under_4.5 76.3% over_5.5 11.7% under_5.5 88.3%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.5% over_1.5 68.3%
under_1.5 31.7% over_2.5 42.1% under_2.5 58.0%
team_away
over_0.5 60.7% under_0.5 39.3% over_1.5 24.0%
under_1.5 76.0% over_2.5 6.9% under_2.5 93.2%
most
home 68.7% draw 18.5% away 12.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.2% away_+2.5 73.8% home_-1.5 46.5%
away_+1.5 53.5% home_-0.5 68.7% away_+0.5 31.3%
home_+0.5 87.2% away_-0.5 12.9% home_+1.5 95.7%
away_-1.5 4.3% home_+2.5 98.9% away_-2.5 1.1%
total_exact
exact_0 4.1% exact_1 11.4% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.2% exact_5 12.0%
exact_6 6.6% exact_7plus 5.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 54.0% draw 32.6% away 13.4%
total
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.5% over_1.5 45.4%
under_1.5 54.6% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
btts
yes 22.7% no 77.3%
total_exact
exact_0 21.5% exact_1 33.1% exact_2 25.4%
exact_3 13.0% exact_4plus 7.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 58.4% draw 27.9% away 13.7%
total
over_0.5 84.7% under_0.5 15.3% over_1.5 55.9%
under_1.5 44.1% over_2.5 29.0% under_2.5 71.0%
btts
yes 29.6% no 70.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 49.4% H/D 3.7% H/A 1.0%
D/H 19.1% D/D 9.1% D/A 4.5%
A/H 3.5% A/D 3.6% A/A 6.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.5% under_7.5 26.5% over_8.5 62.0%
under_8.5 38.0% over_9.5 49.8% under_9.5 50.2%
over_10.5 38.0% under_10.5 62.0% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.1% under_12.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.2% under_3.5 22.8% over_4.5 62.9%
under_4.5 37.1% over_5.5 47.8% under_5.5 52.3%
team_away
over_3.5 56.1% under_3.5 44.0% over_4.5 38.6%
under_4.5 61.5% over_5.5 24.3% under_5.5 75.7%
most
home 60.7% draw 10.2% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.0% away_+3.5 71.0% home_-1.5 49.8%
away_+1.5 50.2% home_-0.5 60.7% away_+0.5 39.3%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+1.5 79.7%
away_-1.5 20.3% home_+3.5 91.6% away_-3.5 8.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.3% under_22.5 31.7% over_24.5 56.1%
under_24.5 43.9% over_26.5 43.7% under_26.5 56.3%
over_28.5 31.9% under_28.5 68.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 82.4% under_10.5 17.6% over_12.5 68.9%
under_12.5 31.1% over_14.5 53.2% under_14.5 46.8%
team_away
over_10.5 47.7% under_10.5 52.3% over_12.5 29.9%
under_12.5 70.1% over_14.5 16.7% under_14.5 83.3%
most
home 73.8% draw 4.9% away 21.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 50.0% away_+4.5 50.0% home_-2.5 62.5%
away_+2.5 37.5% home_-0.5 73.8% away_+0.5 26.2%
home_+0.5 78.7% away_-0.5 21.3% home_+2.5 86.7%
away_-2.5 13.3% home_+4.5 92.3% away_-4.5 7.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.6% under_6.5 18.4% over_7.5 71.4%
under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 59.8% under_8.5 40.2%
over_9.5 47.8% under_9.5 52.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 83.1% under_3.5 16.9% over_4.5 70.1%
under_4.5 29.9% over_5.5 55.3% under_5.5 44.7%
team_away
over_3.5 44.7% under_3.5 55.3% over_4.5 27.0%
under_4.5 73.0% over_5.5 14.7% under_5.5 85.3%
most
home 73.9% draw 9.1% away 17.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 50.7% away_+2.5 49.3% home_-0.5 73.9%
away_+0.5 26.1% home_+0.5 83.0% away_-0.5 17.0%
home_+2.5 94.4% away_-2.5 5.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.3% under_2.5 18.7% over_3.5 64.2%
under_3.5 35.8% over_4.5 45.5% under_4.5 54.5%
over_5.5 29.0% under_5.5 71.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.6% under_1.5 43.4% over_2.5 30.2%
under_2.5 69.8%
team_away
over_1.5 70.9% under_1.5 29.1% over_2.5 45.9%
under_2.5 54.1%
most
home 30.0% draw 18.6% away 51.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.7% away_+1.5 84.3% home_-0.5 30.0%
away_+0.5 70.0% home_+0.5 48.6% away_-0.5 51.4%
home_+1.5 67.2% away_-1.5 32.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.9% under_20.5 21.2% over_22.5 66.8%
under_22.5 33.2% over_24.5 53.2% under_24.5 46.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 59.7% under_9.5 40.3% over_11.5 38.5%
under_11.5 61.5% over_13.5 21.4% under_13.5 78.6%
team_away
over_9.5 87.8% under_9.5 12.2% over_11.5 74.5%
under_11.5 25.5% over_13.5 57.3% under_13.5 42.7%
most
home 22.2% draw 5.6% away 72.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 9.8% away_+3.5 90.2% home_-0.5 22.2%
away_+0.5 77.8% home_+2.5 40.6% away_-2.5 59.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.2% no 73.8%
home
yes 13.4% no 86.6%
away
yes 14.8% no 85.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Real Madrid predictions · Sociedad predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

La LigaReal MadridSociedadTrack record