La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Sociedad Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 63.0% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Real Madrid have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Sociedad 1.4 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.0% for over 2.5 and 83.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. Real Madrid have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Sociedad in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.1% | 88.9% |
Team goal lines
90.1%
67.3%
40.8%
60.6%
23.9%
6.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
55.0%Both Teams to Score63.0%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 63.0% for three or more goals and 83.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Real Madrid favoured at 72.8%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Real Madrid to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 5 · 0 draws · Sociedad 0 · 2.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Real Madrid vs Sociedad?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 63.0%. The match finished with 5 goals (4-1), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.