Shots

Over 22.5	66.3%	Over 24.5	54.0%	Over 26.5	41.6%	Over 28.5	30.2%
Most: Real Madrid	69.4%	Most: Vallecano	25.2%
Real Madrid Over 13.2	56.5%	Vallecano Over 13.2	24.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	80.8%	Over 7.5	70.4%	Over 8.5	58.6%	Over 9.5	46.5%
Most: Real Madrid	72.3%	Most: Vallecano	18.1%
Real Madrid Over 4.2	68.4%	Vallecano Over 4.2	27.6%

Cards

Over 2.5	83.4%	Over 3.5	67.3%	Over 4.5	49.0%
Most: Real Madrid	28.6%	Most: Vallecano	53.4%
Real Madrid Over 1.8	57.7%	Vallecano Over 1.8	73.8%

Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin	5.05	2.46	0.94	90.4%	95.2%	59.1%
Carlos Espí	3.97	1.75	0.81	60.5%	62.3%	35.0%
Vinícius Júnior	3.17	1.26	0.47	66.3%	75.8%	33.4%
Jude Bellingham	2.38	1.02	0.33	57.6%	59.5%	24.2%
Arda Güler	2.3	0.89	0.21	42.3%	41.5%	12.2%

Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Sergio Camello	2.96	1.28	0.53	47.5%	43.8%	23.4%
Alemão	2.07	1.07	0.31	38.3%	23.9%	13.0%
Álvaro García	2.2	0.86	0.15	48.7%	50.9%	11.0%
Randy Nteka	1.89	0.85	0.37	32.1%	21.3%	15.5%
Jorge De Frutos	2.02	0.79	0.26	46.5%	47.5%	18.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Real Madrid clean sheet	41.1%
Vallecano clean sheet	10.4%
Real Madrid win to nil	36.2%
Vallecano win to nil	5.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	68.5%	draw	19.0%	away	12.4%

double_chance

1X	87.6%	12	81.0%	X2	31.5%

dnb

home	84.6%	away	15.4%

btts

yes	52.2%	no	47.8%

clean_sheet

home	42.2%	away	10.4%

win_to_nil

home	37.4%	away	5.6%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.9%	home_by_2	20.6%	home_by_3plus	25.0%
away_by_1	8.5%	away_by_2	3.0%	away_by_3plus	0.9%

correct_score

0-0	4.8%	0-1	3.4%	0-2	1.6%
0-3	0.5%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	9.5%	1-1	9.0%	1-2	3.7%
1-3	1.1%	1-4	0.2%	1-5	0.0%
2-0	11.3%	2-1	9.7%	2-2	4.2%
2-3	1.2%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	8.5%	3-1	7.3%	3-2	3.2%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	4.8%	4-1	4.1%	4-2	1.8%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	2.2%	5-1	1.9%	5-2	0.8%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	2.8%

likeliest_score

h	200.0%	a	0.0%	p	11.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.2%	under_0.5	4.8%	over_1.5	82.3%
under_1.5	17.7%	over_2.5	60.4%	under_2.5	39.6%
over_3.5	38.1%	under_3.5	61.9%	over_4.5	20.7%
under_4.5	79.3%	over_5.5	9.8%	under_5.5	90.3%

odd_even

odd	49.1%	even	50.9%

team_home

over_0.5	89.6%	under_0.5	10.4%	over_1.5	66.0%
under_1.5	34.0%	over_2.5	39.4%	under_2.5	60.6%

team_away

over_0.5	57.8%	under_0.5	42.2%	over_1.5	21.5%
under_1.5	78.5%	over_2.5	5.8%	under_2.5	94.2%

most

home	68.5%	draw	19.0%	away	12.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	25.0%	away_+2.5	75.0%	home_-1.5	45.6%
away_+1.5	54.4%	home_-0.5	68.5%	away_+0.5	31.5%
home_+0.5	87.6%	away_-0.5	12.4%	home_+1.5	96.1%
away_-1.5	4.0%	home_+2.5	99.1%	away_-2.5	0.9%

total_exact

exact_0	4.8%	exact_1	12.9%	exact_2	21.9%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	17.4%	exact_5	10.9%
exact_6	5.7%	exact_7plus	4.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	50.4%	draw	35.7%	away	13.8%

total

over_0.5	74.8%	under_0.5	25.3%	over_1.5	40.0%
under_1.5	60.0%	over_2.5	16.1%	under_2.5	83.9%

btts

yes	19.9%	no	80.1%

total_exact

exact_0	25.3%	exact_1	34.8%	exact_2	23.9%
exact_3	11.0%	exact_4plus	5.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	58.0%	draw	30.3%	away	11.7%

total

over_0.5	80.4%	under_0.5	19.7%	over_1.5	48.4%
under_1.5	51.6%	over_2.5	22.4%	under_2.5	77.6%

btts

yes	23.0%	no	77.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	46.6%	H/D	3.2%	H/A	0.6%
D/H	20.7%	D/D	10.9%	D/A	4.2%
A/H	3.4%	A/D	3.9%	A/A	6.6%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	75.8%	under_7.5	24.2%	over_8.5	64.7%
under_8.5	35.3%	over_9.5	52.7%	under_9.5	47.3%
over_10.5	40.9%	under_10.5	59.1%	over_11.5	30.3%
under_11.5	69.7%	over_12.5	21.3%	under_12.5	78.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	78.6%	under_3.5	21.4%	over_4.5	64.7%
under_4.5	35.3%	over_5.5	49.8%	under_5.5	50.2%

team_away

over_3.5	57.9%	under_3.5	42.1%	over_4.5	40.4%
under_4.5	59.6%	over_5.5	25.9%	under_5.5	74.1%

most

home	60.9%	draw	10.0%	away	29.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	29.7%	away_+3.5	70.3%	home_-1.5	50.2%
away_+1.5	49.8%	home_-0.5	60.9%	away_+0.5	39.1%
home_+0.5	70.9%	away_-0.5	29.1%	home_+1.5	79.5%
away_-1.5	20.5%	home_+3.5	91.4%	away_-3.5	8.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	66.3%	under_22.5	33.7%	over_24.5	54.0%
under_24.5	46.0%	over_26.5	41.6%	under_26.5	58.4%
over_28.5	30.2%	under_28.5	69.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	79.2%	under_10.5	20.8%	over_12.5	64.5%
under_12.5	35.5%	over_14.5	48.4%	under_14.5	51.6%

team_away

over_10.5	50.1%	under_10.5	49.9%	over_12.5	32.1%
under_12.5	67.9%	over_14.5	18.4%	under_14.5	81.6%

most

home	69.4%	draw	5.3%	away	25.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	44.9%	away_+4.5	55.1%	home_-2.5	57.5%
away_+2.5	42.5%	home_-0.5	69.4%	away_+0.5	30.6%
home_+0.5	74.8%	away_-0.5	25.2%	home_+2.5	83.8%
away_-2.5	16.2%	home_+4.5	90.4%	away_-4.5	9.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	80.9%	under_6.5	19.2%	over_7.5	70.4%
under_7.5	29.6%	over_8.5	58.6%	under_8.5	41.4%
over_9.5	46.5%	under_9.5	53.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	81.9%	under_3.5	18.1%	over_4.5	68.5%
under_4.5	31.6%	over_5.5	53.3%	under_5.5	46.7%

team_away

over_3.5	45.3%	under_3.5	54.7%	over_4.5	27.6%
under_4.5	72.4%	over_5.5	15.1%	under_5.5	84.9%

most

home	72.3%	draw	9.5%	away	18.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	48.7%	away_+2.5	51.3%	home_-0.5	72.3%
away_+0.5	27.7%	home_+0.5	81.9%	away_-0.5	18.1%
home_+2.5	93.9%	away_-2.5	6.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	83.4%	under_2.5	16.6%	over_3.5	67.3%
under_3.5	32.7%	over_4.5	49.0%	under_4.5	51.0%
over_5.5	32.2%	under_5.5	67.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	57.7%	under_1.5	42.3%	over_2.5	31.3%
under_2.5	68.8%

team_away

over_1.5	73.8%	under_1.5	26.2%	over_2.5	49.6%
under_2.5	50.4%

most

home	28.6%	draw	17.9%	away	53.4%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.0%	away_+1.5	85.0%	home_-0.5	28.6%
away_+0.5	71.4%	home_+0.5	46.6%	away_-0.5	53.4%
home_+1.5	64.9%	away_-1.5	35.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	74.3%	under_20.5	25.7%	over_22.5	61.3%
under_22.5	38.7%	over_24.5	47.3%	under_24.5	52.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	57.7%	under_9.5	42.3%	over_11.5	36.5%
under_11.5	63.5%	over_13.5	19.9%	under_13.5	80.1%

team_away

over_9.5	84.5%	under_9.5	15.5%	over_11.5	69.4%
under_11.5	30.6%	over_13.5	51.3%	under_13.5	48.7%

most

home	24.4%	draw	5.9%	away	69.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	11.0%	away_+3.5	89.0%	home_-0.5	24.4%
away_+0.5	75.6%	home_+2.5	43.7%	away_-2.5	56.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	30.0%	no	70.0%

home

yes	11.2%	no	88.8%

away

yes	21.2%	no	78.8%