Santander vs Alaves: model prediction
La Liga
SantanderDLWL
AlavesLWDWW
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Alaves
Over 8.5 corners
Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Santander and Alaves almost evenly, Alaves marginally on top at 41%. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Alaves than the market (34%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. • As a promoted side, Santander carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Pablo García drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Santander W1 D1 L2, Alaves W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
31.4%-7.4%
27.7%+1.0%
40.9%+6.5%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
6.2 / 5.0
4.0 / 9.5
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
SantanderAlavesLeague averages this season: 3.00 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 54%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 11.36
@ 3.66
@ 4.67
@ 4.63
@ 1.96
@ 1.60
@ ·
@ 8.00
@ 11.49
@ 2.69
@ 1.85
@ 1.54
@ 62.50
@ 9.09
@ 16.95
@ 43.48
@ 3.45
@ 3.66
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.4% | Over 24.5 | 49.8% | Over 26.5 | 37.6% | Over 28.5 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santander | 61.4% | Most: Alaves | 32.6% | ||||
| Santander Over 13.2 | 47.9% | Alaves Over 13.2 | 27.7% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.6% | Over 7.5 | 61.4% | Over 8.5 | 48.6% | Over 9.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santander | 53.5% | Most: Alaves | 33.8% | ||||
| Santander Over 4.2 | 49.6% | Alaves Over 4.2 | 35.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.1% | Over 3.5 | 67.0% | Over 4.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Santander | 33.4% | Most: Alaves | 48.1% | ||
| Santander Over 1.8 | 61.3% | Alaves Over 1.8 | 70.8% |
Santander: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo García | 3.39 | 1.25 | 0.36 | 27.3% | 21.4% | 8.8% |
| André Almeida | 0.84 | 0.23 | 0 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Aarón Martín | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Iván Martín | 0.48 | 0.14 | 0 | 10.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Matteo Prati | 1.32 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 2.4% | 18.9% | 2.4% |
Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez | 3.22 | 1.08 | 0.37 | 50.9% | 62.6% | 21.6% |
| Lucas Boyé | 2.91 | 1.02 | 0.61 | 54.1% | 65.0% | 37.2% |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach | 1.79 | 0.6 | 0.04 | 29.0% | 27.3% | 2.3% |
| Carlos Benavídez | 0.88 | 0.5 | 0.13 | 12.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| Pablo Ibáñez | 1.66 | 0.44 | 0.07 | 25.0% | 29.6% | 4.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Santander clean sheet | 25.2% |
|---|---|
| Alaves clean sheet | 29.8% |
| Santander win to nil | 17.0% |
| Alaves win to nil | 21.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 32.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 59.9% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 44.6% | away | 55.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.1% | no | 46.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.3% | away | 29.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 17.1% | away | 21.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.5% | home_by_2 | 9.3% | home_by_3plus | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.1% | away_by_2 | 12.0% | away_by_3plus | 7.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 0-1 | 9.8% | 0-2 | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.3% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 4.0% | 1-4 | 1.4% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.5% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.2% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.8% | under_0.5 | 8.2% | over_1.5 | 73.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.4% | over_2.5 | 47.8% | under_2.5 | 52.2% |
| over_3.5 | 26.1% | under_3.5 | 73.9% | over_4.5 | 12.1% |
| under_4.5 | 87.9% | over_5.5 | 4.8% | under_5.5 | 95.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.1% | under_0.5 | 29.9% | over_1.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.9% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.8% | under_0.5 | 25.3% | over_1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.0% | over_2.5 | 16.1% | under_2.5 | 83.9% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.5% | away_+2.5 | 95.5% | home_-1.5 | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.2% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% | away_+0.5 | 67.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.9% | away_-0.5 | 40.1% | home_+1.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.0% | home_+2.5 | 93.0% | away_-2.5 | 7.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.2% | exact_1 | 18.2% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.0% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 42.2% | draw | 35.3% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.6% | under_0.5 | 21.4% | over_1.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.3% | over_2.5 | 20.2% | under_2.5 | 79.8% |
btts
| yes | 27.6% | no | 72.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.4% | exact_1 | 33.0% | exact_2 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.1% | exact_4plus | 7.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.7% | draw | 38.1% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.2% | over_2.5 | 16.7% | under_2.5 | 83.3% |
btts
| yes | 25.1% | no | 74.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.5% | H/D | 7.4% | H/A | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.4% | D/D | 13.5% | D/A | 12.4% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 3.6% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.1% | under_7.5 | 24.0% | over_8.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.0% | over_9.5 | 53.0% | under_9.5 | 47.0% |
| over_10.5 | 41.3% | under_10.5 | 58.8% | over_11.5 | 30.6% |
| under_11.5 | 69.4% | over_12.5 | 21.6% | under_12.5 | 78.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.0% | under_3.5 | 24.0% | over_4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.7% | over_5.5 | 46.2% | under_5.5 | 53.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
most
| home | 55.5% | draw | 10.4% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.2% | away_+3.5 | 74.8% | home_-1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.3% | home_-0.5 | 55.5% | away_+0.5 | 44.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% | home_+1.5 | 75.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.9% | away_-3.5 | 11.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.4% | under_22.5 | 37.6% | over_24.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.2% | over_26.5 | 37.6% | under_26.5 | 62.4% |
| over_28.5 | 26.8% | under_28.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.7% | under_10.5 | 27.3% | over_12.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 43.7% | over_14.5 | 39.8% | under_14.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.6% | under_10.5 | 46.4% | over_12.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.6% | over_14.5 | 21.0% | under_14.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 61.4% | draw | 6.0% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.3% | away_+4.5 | 63.7% | home_-2.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.2% | home_-0.5 | 61.4% | away_+0.5 | 38.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.4% | away_-0.5 | 32.6% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.0% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.7% | under_6.5 | 26.4% | over_7.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 38.6% | over_8.5 | 48.6% | under_8.5 | 51.4% |
| over_9.5 | 36.4% | under_9.5 | 63.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.1% | under_3.5 | 33.0% | over_4.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.4% | over_5.5 | 33.5% | under_5.5 | 66.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.7% | under_3.5 | 46.3% | over_4.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.6% | over_5.5 | 21.0% | under_5.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 53.5% | draw | 12.7% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.6% | away_+2.5 | 71.4% | home_-0.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.5% | home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.8% | away_-2.5 | 14.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.2% | under_2.5 | 16.9% | over_3.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.0% | over_4.5 | 48.7% | under_4.5 | 51.3% |
| over_5.5 | 31.9% | under_5.5 | 68.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.3% | under_1.5 | 38.8% | over_2.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.8% | under_1.5 | 29.2% | over_2.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.3% |
most
| home | 33.4% | draw | 18.5% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.4% | away_+1.5 | 81.7% | home_-0.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.6% | home_+0.5 | 51.9% | away_-0.5 | 48.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.7% | away_-1.5 | 30.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.2% | under_20.5 | 13.8% | over_22.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.2% | over_24.5 | 65.0% | under_24.5 | 35.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.0% | under_9.5 | 21.0% | over_11.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.6% | over_13.5 | 42.5% | under_13.5 | 57.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 85.4% | under_9.5 | 14.6% | over_11.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.2% | over_13.5 | 53.0% | under_13.5 | 47.0% |
most
| home | 39.4% | draw | 6.6% | away | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.1% | away_+3.5 | 77.9% | home_-0.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.6% | home_+2.5 | 59.2% | away_-2.5 | 40.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 26.0% | no | 74.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.6% | no | 91.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 19.1% | no | 80.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Santander predictions · Alaves predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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