Valencia vs Betis prediction & probabilities (2026-08-25)

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Valencia vs Betis: model prediction

La Liga
Valencia

LWDWW

Tue, 25 Aug 202610:00UK
Betis

WDWLW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Valencia or draw

60%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ValenciaWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Valencia or draw68.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Over 8.5 corners60.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.67

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Valencia and Betis almost evenly, Valencia marginally on top at 41%. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. • Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Valencia against W3 D2 L1 for Betis. • For shots markets, Largie Ramazani is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Valencia, 2 draws and 2 for Betis at 3.2 goals per match. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners38.9%@ 2.57
Betis win31.5%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Draw or Betis59.1%@ 1.69
Both teams to score54.2%@ 1.85
Under 2.5 goals50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.71
1-0 correct score9.4%@ 10.67
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.52

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Valencia

40.9%

Draw

27.7%

Betis

31.5%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.549.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes54.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersValencia 57.6% · Betis 31.8%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.7%2.549.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.7%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

ValenciaLWDWW
BetisWDWLW

Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 · 2 draws · Betis 2 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-02-01Betis 2-1 Valencia
2025-11-09Valencia 1-1 Betis
2025-05-23Betis 1-1 Valencia
2024-11-23Valencia 4-2 Betis
2024-04-20Valencia 1-2 Betis

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

ValenciaBetis
League position#9 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L13-10-1515-15-8
Current streakW2W1
Points per game1.291.58
Record, home vs away8-6-55-9-5
PPG, home vs away1.581.26
Goals scored per game1.211.55
Goals conceded per game1.451.26
Scored, home vs away1.421.32
Conceded, home vs away1.211.53
1st half goals per game0.320.68
2nd half goals per game0.890.87
Corners won per game5.14.5
Cards per game2.02.0
Fouls per game12.110.6
Red cards this season32
Shots on target per game3.24.8
xG for per game1.421.61
xG against per game1.461.32
Over 2.5 rate

42.1%52.6%

BTTS rate

55.3%68.4%

Clean sheets

23.7%26.3%

Rates this season:ValenciaBetis

League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Largie RamazaniValencia · key player
To score19.9%

@ 5.03

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots56.2%

@ 1.78

Shots/90 3.82SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.45
Dani GómezValencia · in form
To score13.4%

@ 7.46

1+ on target34.8%

@ 2.87

2+ shots23.8%

@ 4.20

Shots/90 2.32SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.36
Umar SadiqValencia · in form
To score22.3%

@ 4.48

1+ on target37.7%

@ 2.65

2+ shots36.5%

@ 2.74

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.48

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Valencia win2.49
Draw3.67
Betis win3.07
Both teams to score1.84

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.03
Over 3.5 goals3.64
Valencia most2.49
Betis most3.07

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.59
Valencia most1.73
Betis most3.14

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.64
Over 4.5 cards2.38
Over 5.5 cards3.85
Valencia most2.81
Betis most2.23

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.25
Over 9.5 SoT3.08
Valencia most1.95
Betis most2.81

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.18
Over 26.5 shots2.96
Over 28.5 shots4.28
Valencia most1.60
Betis most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.39
Over 22.5 fouls1.71
Over 24.5 fouls2.26
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.3% Over 7.5 57.5% Over 8.5 44.4% Over 9.5 32.5%
Most: Valencia 51.3% Most: Betis 35.6%
Valencia Over 4.2 45.3% Betis Over 4.2 34.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.0% Over 3.5 61.0% Over 4.5 42.0%
Most: Valencia 35.6% Most: Betis 44.8%
Valencia Over 1.8 58.9% Betis Over 1.8 65.1%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Largie Ramazani 3.82 1.43 0.45 50.6% 56.2% 19.9%
Dani Gómez 2.32 1.07 0.36 34.8% 23.8% 13.4%
Umar Sadiq 2.43 0.9 0.48 37.7% 36.5% 22.3%
Rafa Mir 3.39 0.88 0.13 29.5% 39.0% 5.0%
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.01 0.78 0.17 37.2% 33.7% 9.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 40.2% draw 27.2% away 32.5%
double_chance
1X 67.5% 12 72.8% X2 59.8%
dnb
home 55.3% away 44.7%
btts
yes 54.2% no 45.8%
clean_sheet
home 29.0% away 24.5%
win_to_nil
home 21.2% away 16.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.0% home_by_2 12.1% home_by_3plus 7.2%
away_by_1 18.4% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.7%
correct_score
0-0 7.7% 0-1 8.2% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.4% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.2% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.0% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.3% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.3% under_0.5 7.7% over_1.5 74.7%
under_1.5 25.3% over_2.5 49.3% under_2.5 50.7%
over_3.5 27.4% under_3.5 72.6% over_4.5 13.0%
under_4.5 87.1% over_5.5 5.3% under_5.5 94.7%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.0%
under_1.5 59.0% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
team_away
over_0.5 71.0% under_0.5 29.0% over_1.5 35.2%
under_1.5 64.8% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
most
home 40.2% draw 27.2% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.2% away_+2.5 92.8% home_-1.5 19.3%
away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 40.2% away_+0.5 59.8%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 85.9%
away_-1.5 14.1% home_+2.5 95.3% away_-2.5 4.7%
total_exact
exact_0 7.7% exact_1 17.5% exact_2 25.4%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 14.5% exact_5 7.7%
exact_6 3.4% exact_7plus 1.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.8% draw 44.4% away 23.8%
total
over_0.5 66.1% under_0.5 33.9% over_1.5 29.5%
under_1.5 70.5% over_2.5 9.6% under_2.5 90.4%
btts
yes 17.3% no 82.7%
total_exact
exact_0 33.9% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.9%
exact_3 7.2% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.3% draw 35.2% away 33.5%
total
over_0.5 80.0% under_0.5 20.0% over_1.5 47.7%
under_1.5 52.3% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
btts
yes 30.5% no 69.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.1% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.8%
D/H 13.9% D/D 15.6% D/A 14.9%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.4% A/A 17.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.1% under_7.5 26.0% over_8.5 62.6%
under_8.5 37.4% over_9.5 50.4% under_9.5 49.6%
over_10.5 38.7% under_10.5 61.4% over_11.5 28.2%
under_11.5 71.8% over_12.5 19.6% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.0% under_3.5 24.0% over_4.5 61.2%
under_4.5 38.8% over_5.5 46.0% under_5.5 54.0%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 41.5%
under_4.5 58.5% over_5.5 26.8% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 57.7% draw 10.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.4% home_-1.5 46.8%
away_+1.5 53.2% home_-0.5 57.7% away_+0.5 42.3%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 77.3%
away_-1.5 22.7% home_+3.5 90.3% away_-3.5 9.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.6% under_22.5 41.4% over_24.5 45.8%
under_24.5 54.2% over_26.5 33.7% under_26.5 66.3%
over_28.5 23.4% under_28.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.1% under_10.5 28.9% over_12.5 54.2%
under_12.5 45.8% over_14.5 37.7% under_14.5 62.3%
team_away
over_10.5 49.9% under_10.5 50.1% over_12.5 31.9%
under_12.5 68.1% over_14.5 18.2% under_14.5 81.8%
most
home 62.5% draw 6.0% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.9% away_+4.5 63.1% home_-2.5 49.7%
away_+2.5 50.3% home_-0.5 62.5% away_+0.5 37.5%
home_+0.5 68.6% away_-0.5 31.5% home_+2.5 79.1%
away_-2.5 20.9% home_+4.5 87.2% away_-4.5 12.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.3% under_6.5 29.7% over_7.5 57.5%
under_7.5 42.5% over_8.5 44.5% under_8.5 55.6%
over_9.5 32.5% under_9.5 67.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.2% under_3.5 36.8% over_4.5 45.3%
under_4.5 54.8% over_5.5 29.5% under_5.5 70.5%
team_away
over_3.5 52.3% under_3.5 47.7% over_4.5 34.0%
under_4.5 66.0% over_5.5 20.0% under_5.5 80.0%
most
home 51.3% draw 13.1% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.4% away_+2.5 73.6% home_-0.5 51.3%
away_+0.5 48.7% home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.6%
home_+2.5 85.0% away_-2.5 15.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.0% under_2.5 21.0% over_3.5 61.0%
under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 42.0% under_4.5 58.0%
over_5.5 26.0% under_5.5 74.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.9% under_1.5 41.1% over_2.5 32.4%
under_2.5 67.6%
team_away
over_1.5 65.1% under_1.5 34.9% over_2.5 39.0%
under_2.5 61.0%
most
home 35.6% draw 19.6% away 44.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.5% away_+1.5 80.5% home_-0.5 35.6%
away_+0.5 64.4% home_+0.5 55.2% away_-0.5 44.8%
home_+1.5 73.3% away_-1.5 26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.9% under_20.5 28.1% over_22.5 58.3%
under_22.5 41.7% over_24.5 44.2% under_24.5 55.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 73.7% under_9.5 26.3% over_11.5 54.4%
under_11.5 45.6% over_13.5 35.3% under_13.5 64.7%
team_away
over_9.5 69.8% under_9.5 30.3% over_11.5 49.6%
under_11.5 50.4% over_13.5 30.8% under_13.5 69.3%
most
home 49.8% draw 7.1% away 43.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.4% away_+3.5 70.6% home_-0.5 49.8%
away_+0.5 50.2% home_+2.5 70.4% away_-2.5 29.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.7% no 85.3%
home
yes 7.0% no 93.0%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Valencia predictions · Betis predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

La LigaValenciaBetisTrack record