Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs 
Heerenveen Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 66.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.9% for over 22.5 to 44.0% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Between the two sides, PSV Eindhoven are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.4%, with a level count at 5.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 44.0% | 56.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
82.0%
69.8%
55.8%
60.7%
44.3%
29.8%
Shot handicap
| PSV Eindhoven line | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| -2.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| -0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
22.7PSV Eindhoven shots per game8.3PSV Eindhoven shots faced per game14.8Heerenveen shots per game16.7Heerenveen shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for PSV Eindhoven.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
66.0%Over 24.5 shots69.8%PSV Eindhoven over 12.5 shots44.3%Heerenveen over 12.5 shots81.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, PSV Eindhoven over 12.5 shots sits at 69.8% and Heerenveen at 44.3%. This season PSV Eindhoven have averaged 22.7 shots a game and Heerenveen 14.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 66.0% for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen.
Which team will have more shots in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The model rates PSV Eindhoven to take more shots at 65.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
