Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Bayern Munich66.1%
Win probability · fair 1.51
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely89.2%Fair 1.12
Draw or Bayern MunichVery likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goalsLikely72.3%Fair 1.38
Model read
▾
Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Bayern Munich carry a 66% win probability against Augsburg on 9 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 72% with both teams to score at 67%. • The run in: Augsburg arrive W4 D1 L1, Bayern Munich W4 D2 L0. • For shots markets, Anton Kade is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 1 wins for Augsburg, 0 draws and 4 for Bayern Munich over 5 games, 4.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.3%@ 2.36
Augsburg or draw33.9%@ 2.95
Over 11.5 corners32.8%@ 3.05
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.93
1-1 correct score7.9%@ 12.67
1-3 correct score7.4%@ 13.44
Model vs market
Augsburg
16.9%
Draw
16.9%
Bayern Munich
66.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely89.2%Fair 1.12
Over 2.5Likely72.3%Fair 1.38
BTTS · YesLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.3%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.7%Fair 1.90
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.3%Fair 2.36
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.8%Fair 3.05
Most cornersAugsburg47.0%Bayern Munich42.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely74.8%Fair 1.34
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.9%Fair 1.57
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.1%Fair 1.92
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely40.4%Fair 2.48
Recent shot volume
Augsburg14.8 taken18.5 faced
Bayern Munich20.3 taken9.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Augsburg (3 games)
3.7 / 12.7
Bayern Munich (3 games)
8.0 / 13.3
Totals line guide
0.5·1.589.2%2.572.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.572.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
AugsburgWLWWD
Bayern MunichWWWDW
Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 1 · 0 draws · Bayern Munich 4 · 4.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Anton KadeAugsburg · key player
To score21.2%4.72
1+ on target57.8%1.73
2+ shots55.6%1.80
Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.34
Harry KaneBayern Munich · key player
To score62.0%1.61
1+ on target84.4%1.18
2+ shots89.1%1.12
Shots/90 4.45SoT/90 2.19Goals/90 1.14
Michael GregoritschAugsburg · in form
To score23.5%4.26
1+ on target44.2%2.26
2+ shots37.9%2.64
Shots/90 2.66SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.54
Michael OliseBayern Munich · in form
To score35.9%2.79
1+ on target73.1%1.37
2+ shots79.8%1.25
Shots/90 3.75SoT/90 1.65Goals/90 0.56
Mert KömürAugsburg · in form
To score7.7%12.99
1+ on target38.8%2.58
2+ shots31.4%3.18
Shots/90 2.41SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.17
Lennart KarlBayern Munich · in form
To score18.9%5.29
1+ on target56.3%1.78
2+ shots47.0%2.13
Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 1.54Goals/90 0.39
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Augsburg win5.26
Draw5.19
Bayern Munich win1.62
Both teams to score1.49
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.12
Over 2.5 goals1.38
Over 3.5 goals1.93
Over 4.5 goals3.10
Augsburg most5.26
Bayern Munich most1.62
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.35
Augsburg most2.12
Bayern Munich most2.37
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.21
Over 4.5 cards3.78
Over 5.5 cards7.37
Augsburg most2.34
Bayern Munich most2.87
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.53
Over 9.5 SoT1.85
Augsburg most2.53
Bayern Munich most2.04
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.34
Over 24.5 shots1.57
Over 26.5 shots1.92
Over 28.5 shots2.48
Augsburg most2.04
Bayern Munich most2.23
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.41
Over 22.5 fouls3.34
Over 24.5 fouls4.89
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
74.8%
Over 24.5
63.9%
Over 26.5
52.1%
Over 28.5
40.4%
Most: Augsburg
49.1%
Most: Bayern Munich
44.9%
Augsburg Over 13.2
49.5%
Bayern Munich Over 13.2
46.5%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
84.7%
Over 7.5
75.8%
Over 8.5
65.4%
Over 9.5
54.1%
Most: Augsburg
39.5%
Most: Bayern Munich
49.1%
Augsburg Over 4.2
51.4%
Bayern Munich Over 4.2
58.2%
Cards
Over 2.5
66.9%
Over 3.5
45.2%
Over 4.5
26.5%
Most: Augsburg
42.8%
Most: Bayern Munich
34.9%
Augsburg Over 1.8
54.3%
Bayern Munich Over 1.8
48.4%
Augsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Anton Kade
2.66
1.23
0.34
57.8%
55.6%
21.2%
Michael Gregoritsch
2.66
1.18
0.54
44.2%
37.9%
23.5%
Mert Kömür
2.41
1.04
0.17
38.8%
31.4%
7.7%
Rodrigo Ribeiro
3.78
1.04
0.39
35.8%
47.8%
15.3%
Alexis Claude Maurice
2.75
1.01
0.31
56.0%
65.4%
22.3%
Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Harry Kane
4.45
2.19
1.14
84.4%
89.1%
62.0%
Michael Olise
3.75
1.65
0.56
73.1%
79.8%
35.9%
Lennart Karl
2.95
1.54
0.39
56.3%
47.0%
18.9%
Jamal Musiala
3.69
1.42
0.52
61.4%
70.7%
29.4%
Luis Díaz
3
1.24
0.48
62.7%
68.8%
31.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Augsburg clean sheet
8.7%
Bayern Munich clean sheet
25.9%
Augsburg win to nil
6.0%
Bayern Munich win to nil
23.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
19.0%
draw
19.3%
away
61.7%
double_chance
1X
38.3%
12
80.7%
X2
81.0%
dnb
home
23.5%
away
76.4%
btts
yes
67.1%
no
32.9%
clean_sheet
home
8.8%
away
26.9%
win_to_nil
home
6.0%
away
24.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
11.1%
home_by_2
5.3%
home_by_3plus
2.6%
away_by_1
20.9%
away_by_2
18.1%
away_by_3plus
22.7%
correct_score
0-0
2.7%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
7.0%
0-3
5.7%
0-4
3.5%
0-5
1.7%
1-0
2.7%
1-1
7.9%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
7.4%
1-4
4.5%
1-5
2.2%
2-0
2.0%
2-1
4.9%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
4.9%
2-4
3.0%
2-5
1.5%
3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.2%
3-2
2.6%
3-3
2.2%
3-4
1.3%
3-5
0.6%
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.7%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.2%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.1%
other
4.0%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
200.0%
p
9.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
97.3%
under_0.5
2.7%
over_1.5
89.2%
under_1.5
10.8%
over_2.5
72.3%
under_2.5
27.7%
over_3.5
51.7%
under_3.5
48.3%
over_4.5
32.3%
under_4.5
67.7%
over_5.5
17.8%
under_5.5
82.2%
odd_even
odd
49.2%
even
50.8%
team_home
over_0.5
73.1%
under_0.5
26.9%
over_1.5
37.9%
under_1.5
62.1%
over_2.5
14.7%
under_2.5
85.3%
team_away
over_0.5
91.3%
under_0.5
8.8%
over_1.5
70.0%
under_1.5
30.0%
over_2.5
44.0%
under_2.5
56.0%
most
home
19.0%
draw
19.3%
away
61.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
2.6%
away_+2.5
97.4%
home_-1.5
7.9%
away_+1.5
92.1%
home_-0.5
19.0%
away_+0.5
81.0%
home_+0.5
38.3%
away_-0.5
61.7%
home_+1.5
59.2%
away_-1.5
40.8%
home_+2.5
77.3%
away_-2.5
22.7%
total_exact
exact_0
2.7%
exact_1
8.1%
exact_2
16.9%
exact_3
20.7%
exact_4
19.4%
exact_5
14.5%
exact_6
9.1%
exact_7plus
8.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
17.9%
draw
33.0%
away
49.1%
total
over_0.5
80.3%
under_0.5
19.8%
over_1.5
48.2%
under_1.5
51.8%
over_2.5
22.2%
under_2.5
77.8%
btts
yes
27.4%
no
72.6%
total_exact
exact_0
19.8%
exact_1
32.0%
exact_2
26.0%
exact_3
14.1%
exact_4plus
8.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
19.3%
draw
27.9%
away
52.8%
total
over_0.5
87.5%
under_0.5
12.5%
over_1.5
61.5%
under_1.5
38.5%
over_2.5
34.4%
under_2.5
65.6%
btts
yes
37.8%
no
62.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
9.7%
H/D
4.3%
H/A
3.9%
D/H
6.4%
D/D
9.2%
D/A
17.4%
A/H
1.7%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
42.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.9%
under_7.5
23.1%
over_8.5
66.1%
under_8.5
33.9%
over_9.5
54.3%
under_9.5
45.7%
over_10.5
42.5%
under_10.5
57.5%
over_11.5
31.7%
under_11.5
68.3%
over_12.5
22.6%
under_12.5
77.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
72.0%
under_3.5
28.0%
over_4.5
56.3%
under_4.5
43.8%
over_5.5
40.8%
under_5.5
59.2%
team_away
over_3.5
68.9%
under_3.5
31.2%
over_4.5
52.5%
under_4.5
47.5%
over_5.5
37.1%
under_5.5
62.9%
most
home
47.1%
draw
10.7%
away
42.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.1%
away_+3.5
80.9%
home_-1.5
36.6%
away_+1.5
63.4%
home_-0.5
47.1%
away_+0.5
52.9%
home_+0.5
57.9%
away_-0.5
42.2%
home_+1.5
68.0%
away_-1.5
32.0%
home_+3.5
84.2%
away_-3.5
15.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
74.8%
under_22.5
25.2%
over_24.5
63.9%
under_24.5
36.1%
over_26.5
52.1%
under_26.5
47.9%
over_28.5
40.4%
under_28.5
59.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
73.8%
under_10.5
26.2%
over_12.5
57.8%
under_12.5
42.2%
over_14.5
41.4%
under_14.5
58.6%
team_away
over_10.5
71.4%
under_10.5
28.6%
over_12.5
54.9%
under_12.5
45.2%
over_14.5
38.5%
under_14.5
61.5%
most
home
49.1%
draw
6.0%
away
44.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
26.5%
away_+4.5
73.5%
home_-2.5
37.2%
away_+2.5
62.8%
home_-0.5
49.1%
away_+0.5
50.9%
home_+0.5
55.1%
away_-0.5
44.9%
home_+2.5
66.6%
away_-2.5
33.4%
home_+4.5
76.8%
away_-4.5
23.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
84.7%
under_6.5
15.3%
over_7.5
75.9%
under_7.5
24.2%
over_8.5
65.4%
under_8.5
34.6%
over_9.5
54.1%
under_9.5
45.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.1%
under_3.5
31.9%
over_4.5
51.4%
under_4.5
48.6%
over_5.5
35.8%
under_5.5
64.2%
team_away
over_3.5
73.7%
under_3.5
26.3%
over_4.5
58.2%
under_4.5
41.8%
over_5.5
42.7%
under_5.5
57.3%
most
home
39.5%
draw
11.4%
away
49.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
20.0%
away_+2.5
80.1%
home_-0.5
39.5%
away_+0.5
60.6%
home_+0.5
50.9%
away_-0.5
49.1%
home_+2.5
72.5%
away_-2.5
27.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
66.9%
under_2.5
33.1%
over_3.5
45.2%
under_3.5
54.8%
over_4.5
26.5%
under_4.5
73.5%
over_5.5
13.6%
under_5.5
86.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
54.3%
under_1.5
45.7%
over_2.5
27.5%
under_2.5
72.5%
team_away
over_1.5
48.4%
under_1.5
51.6%
over_2.5
22.4%
under_2.5
77.6%
most
home
42.8%
draw
22.4%
away
34.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
23.0%
away_+1.5
77.1%
home_-0.5
42.8%
away_+0.5
57.2%
home_+0.5
65.1%
away_-0.5
34.9%
home_+1.5
82.9%
away_-1.5
17.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
41.5%
under_20.5
58.5%
over_22.5
30.0%
under_22.5
70.1%
over_24.5
20.5%
under_24.5
79.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
47.2%
under_9.5
52.8%
over_11.5
30.3%
under_11.5
69.7%
over_13.5
17.8%
under_13.5
82.3%
team_away
over_9.5
50.1%
under_9.5
49.9%
over_11.5
33.0%
under_11.5
67.0%
over_13.5
19.9%
under_13.5
80.1%
most
home
44.6%
draw
6.8%
away
48.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.0%
away_+3.5
74.0%
home_-0.5
44.6%
away_+0.5
55.4%
home_+2.5
64.5%
away_-2.5
35.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
12.6%
no
87.4%
home
yes
5.2%
no
94.8%
away
yes
7.8%
no
92.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
Augsburg
Bayern Munich