Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs 
Heerenveen Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 8.8% at 2-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: PSV Eindhoven have averaged 4.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, Heerenveen 1.6 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 75.3% for over 2.5 and 90.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
| 3-0 | 6.1% |
| 2-2 | 5.6% |
| other | 5.6% |
| 4-1 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| PSV Eindhoven \ Heerenveen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
Rows = PSV Eindhoven goals, columns = Heerenveen. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
67.4%Both Teams to Score75.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 75.3% for three or more goals and 90.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With PSV Eindhoven favoured at 66.5%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 4 · 0 draws · Heerenveen 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
The model's most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen is 2-1 at 8.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
