Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs 
Heerenveen Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 86.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, PSV Eindhoven are favoured at 70.2%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven by 1 | 20.0% |
| PSV Eindhoven by 2 | 19.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven by 3+ | 30.7% |
| Heerenveen by 1 | 8.4% |
| Heerenveen by 2 | 3.6% |
| Heerenveen by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
Goal handicap
| PSV Eindhoven line | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| -1.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| -0.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| +0.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% |
This season (2026/27)
3.7PSV Eindhoven goals scored per game1.2PSV Eindhoven goals conceded per game1.6Heerenveen goals scored per game1.3Heerenveen goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is PSV Eindhoven or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
65.4%Both Teams to Score75.5%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, PSV Eindhoven are favoured at 70.2%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 4 · 0 draws · Heerenveen 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen at 86.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
With the draw taken out, the model rates PSV Eindhoven at 83.9% and Heerenveen at 16.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
