AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
PrestonPrestonLDLLL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
West BromWest BromDLLWW

Preston 1-1 West Brom cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.1%

Result

Preston1-1West Brom
2 yellow cardsPreston 1, West Brom 1
0 red cardsPreston 0, West Brom 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.9% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 92.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Elliot Bell

Recorded match referee.

Elliot Bell in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 37 6
Goals 2.57 3.33
Yellow cards 4.41 4.50
Red cards 0.14 0.17
Corners 9.5 8.8
Fouls 22.4 21.0
Both teams scored 57% 83%
Over 2.5 goals 41% 67%
Home wins 54% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Preston vs West Brom 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 15 18
13 Oct 2026 Stoke vs Middlesbrough 2-3 5 Yes 2 0 7 20
19 Sep 2026 Cardiff vs Charlton 3-1 4 Yes 8 0 7 25
5 Sep 2026 Swansea vs Wrexham 0-0 0 No 3 0 7 23
29 Aug 2026 Norwich vs Burnley 4-1 5 Yes 7 1 8 19
22 Aug 2026 Preston vs Wolves 1-3 4 Yes 5 0 9 21
21 Apr 2026 Southampton vs Bristol City 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 10 24
6 Apr 2026 Derby vs Stoke 2-0 2 No 3 0 8 28
28 Mar 2026 Newport County vs ShrewsburyLeague Two 1-0 1 No 5 0 10 24
21 Mar 2026 Notts County vs CheltenhamLeague Two 5-2 7 Yes 5 1 10 20

Elliot Bell referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Preston vs West Brom. The model leans toward Preston for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.7% 32.3%
3.5 cards 46.1% 53.9%
4.5 cards 27.3% 72.8%
5.5 cards 14.1% 85.9%

Who picks up more cards

Preston
39.9%
Level
22.3%
West Brom
37.8%

Team cards lines

Preston

Over 1.5
52.8%
Over 2.5
26.1%

West Brom

Over 1.5
51.3%
Over 2.5
24.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Preston's; West Brom gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Preston line Preston West Brom
-1.5 20.9% 79.1%
-0.5 39.9% 60.1%
+0.5 62.2% 37.8%
+1.5 80.7% 19.3%

Red card

Any red card7.8%
Preston red card2.6%
West Brom red card5.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.8% 44.2%
22.5 fouls 40.0% 60.0%
24.5 fouls 26.1% 73.9%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.7% for over 2.5 to 14.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. Between the two sides, Preston are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 22.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Preston over 1.5 cards sits at 52.8% and West Brom at 51.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.8% (Preston 2.6%, West Brom 5.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.1%Over 3.5 cards
7.8%Any red card
39.9%Most cards: Preston
52.8%Preston over 1.5 cards
51.3%West Brom over 1.5 cards
40.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianPreston are the pick to collect more cards at 39.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 46.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Preston vs West Brom?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.1% for Preston vs West Brom.
Will there be a red card in Preston vs West Brom?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Preston vs West Brom?
Before kickoff, the model rated Preston to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipPreston fixtures and statsWest Brom fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.